The Algemeiner’s Daily Presidential Election IBD/TIPP Jewish Vote Average Tracking Poll – Day 1: Obama: 48% Romney 39%
As the 2012 presidential election rapidly approaches, the Jewish vote has been a subject of great interest and discussion. As President Obama is perceived to have implemented hostile policies towards Israel by many, Republicans have moved to highlight his record in an effort to wrest Jewish voters from their overwhelming historic allegiance to the Democratic party.
Last week, The Algemeiner reported on some astounding new IBD/TIPP Presidential Election poll figures that showed the biggest decline in Jewish support for a Democratic candidate in modern history. Although generating substantial buzz online, the poll was significantly flawed, as the numbers reflecting the Jewish respondents represented a very small sample size.
Of the 812 likely voters polled from the general population, and assuming a higher percentage of Jews are likely to be politically active, the total number of Jews who make up approximately two percent of the American public, participating in the poll, would have roughly been between 20 and 24. As Terry Jones, Associate Editor at Investor’s Business Daily, the official responsible for the poll on the editorial side of the newspaper told The Algemeiner, “The problem with a sample size that small, is that it has an enormous margin of error, maybe a third of whatever the percentage is.”
However, now the IBD/TIPP 2012 Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll has been published for its seventh consecutive day, providing figures on the Jewish vote that can be combined and averaged to provide a much more accurate indication of where Jewish voters stand. A week in, the total number of Jews polled would approximately be between 140 and 168.
As Jones confirmed, “If you have a number of these results over time and you start stacking them up and the actual number of people continues to grow, and you reach the 100 or 200 range then the numbers reach a point where you can average them and get an idea of what the real number should be.”
So, from now until election day, The Algemeiner will publish a daily aggregated average of Jewish vote figures provided in the IBD/TIPP poll, presenting the only daily representation of Jewish voting intentions.
The numbers from day 1 of the poll released on October 9th were, Obama 55% Romney 19% undecided 26%, Day 2: Obama 47% Romney 25% undecided 28%, Day 3: Obama 40% Romney 44% undecided 16%, Day 4 Obama 44% Romney 41% undecided 14%, Day 5: Obama 52% Romney 45% undecided 3%, Day 6: Obama 50% Romney 48% undecided 2% and today: Obama 48% Romney 52% undecided 0%.
Based on these figures, the Jewish vote aggregate average figures for today show President Obama with 48%, Mitt Romney with 39.1%, and 12.7% undecided.
These numbers mark the lowest level of support for a Democratic candidate since Jimmy Carter who received only 45% of the the Jewish vote running against Ronald Reagan in 1980, and the greatest amount of Jewish support for a Republican candidate since 1956 when Eisenhower attracted 40%.
As The Algemeiner has noted in the past, these poll numbers indicate a significant decline in Jewish support from the 78% who backed the President in 2008, and are also a significant departure from a recent American Jewish Committee (AJC) poll released Sept. 27 that showed Obama with 65% of the Jewish vote.
It is interesting to note that in the final five days of polling so far Mitt Romney’s support among Jewish voters has not dropped below 41% whereas in the two days prior, it was substantially lower, averaging 22%. It is possible that this shift is a result of the post debate timing, which would have allowed more time for the results of a widely considered negative debate performance by President Obama on October 3rd to settle in. Therefore, after 10 days have passed, The Algemeiner aggregate average poll will roll forward, knocking off the figures from the most distant day in order to keep the poll numbers as current as possible.
Today’s individual figures although to be “interpreted with caution” in isolation, would set another record if accurate, as the first time a Republican candidate has gained the support of more than half of the Jewish electorate since at least 1916.