ALGEMEINER LIVE BLOG: Presidential Election Results 2012
by Alan Steinberg
The Algemeiner is live blogging the 2012 presidential election results. Commentary is by Political columnist Alan Steinberg in concert with Algemeiner staff. For Algemeiner commentary on the importance of the Jewish vote in this election click here. For our latest Jewish vote tracking poll results click here. For Alan Steinberg’s pre-election prediction click here. Refresh this page for latest updates.
WRAP: Tonight’s victory for Barack Obama was primarily a matter of
demographics – and not just a matter of positive loyalty of the Obama
coalition constituents to the Democratic Party. These colition
constituents – African-Americans, Hispanic voters, the young, and
women – are as much motivated by antipathy to the GOP as they are by
anything positive in the Democratic Party agenda. It is ironic that
during the same week as the premiere of Steven Spielberg movie about
Lincoln, the first GOP president, the Republicans find themselves as
rudderless as ever before. And Ronald Reagan remains as the only
Republican President over the past century with an effective appeal
to American Jews.
1:55 – Obama giving victory speech now. He is in the odd position of having
won a decisive victory without a policy mandate.
1:33 – One of the few GOP winners tonight: John Boehner. He remains as
Speaker of the House, and he is the person President Obama must deal
with for the nation to avoid going off the fiscal cliff.
1:30 – There is no understating what a disaster tonight was for the
Republican Party. Somehow, the party needs to coalesce around the
center-right and find a way to effectively outreach to Hispanic
1:10 – Ann Romney looks really pained. She dealt with breast cancer and
multiple sclerosis. She will overcome the pain of this defeat. Ann is
an outstanding woman and will continue to be an excellent role model
for men and women in our nation.
1:01 – Romney is conceding now. He is a fine family man and outstanding
citizen. He’s going out with class. After giving it his all for two
years, going out and conceding before millions of Americans is a most
12:55 – A major mistaken assumption on the part of the GOP in this election -they assumed that the coalition that won for Obama in 2012 would disintegrate and not turn out and vote – that coalition includes African-Americans, Hispanics, single women, the young. All these groups turned out in massive numbers once again to vote for Obama.
12:49 – Obama wins Virginia – he now has 303 electoral votes.
12:47 – The GOP, on a national level, is headed for a bitter internecine war.
The Tea Party folks and the religious right will blame the moderates,
and the moderates will blame the right wing for their stands on
immigration and abortion. The only hope for a GOP comeback – the
12:46 – I think Obama will win the popular vote as well. He will need to
have a better relationship with the Republican-controlled House of
Representatives, however, to govern effectively.
11:15 – Obama needs Ohio, Virginia, or Florida – and that would put him over
the top. Or if he carries Colorado and Nevada, he wins reelection.
10:59 – Interesting – all the states I projected as “Safe and Likely” for Obama and Romney, respectively have indeed been carried by the candidate for whom they were projected.
10:38 – Hey, Dick Morris, where is your landslide? Read this column I wrote
10:20 – If Scott Brown loses in Massachusetts and Richard Mourdock loses in
Indiana, the GOP may wind up with a net loss in the U.S.Senate races,
now that Tom Smith has lost in Pennsylvania and Tommy Thompson has
lost in Wisconsin.
10:08 – New Hampshire has been projected for Obama. If Ohio is projected
tonight for Obama, regardless of Florida, North Carolina, and
Virginia, to paraphrase Willie Nelson, you can turn out the lights –
this party is over.
9:58 – GOP candidate and former Governor Tommy Thompson lost for U.S. Senate
in Wisconsin. An unfortunate loss for pro-Israel forces – he is a
solid supporter of Israel and a real Ohev Yisrael.
9:30 – Fox has just projected Wisconsin for Obama. If Romney doesn’t carry
both Ohio and Colorado, this ball game is over.
9:20 – Fox has projected Pennsylvania for Obama. Like Michigan – every four
years, the Republicans think their presidential candidate will carry
Pennsylvania, and every four years, the Democrats win it. Fool’s
gold for the GOP.
9:15 – Romney ahead now by an eyelash in Florida and Virginia. I think he
will win Virginia. Florida is too close to call.
9:07 – Michigan was just projected for Obama. Every four years, Republicans
delude themselves into thinking their presidential candidate can
carry that state, and every four years, the Democratic candidate
carries Michigan. Auto bailout a HUGE factor in Michigan, and I think
it will result in Obama carrying Ohio also.
8:53 – In Florida and Virginia, people are still in line to vote – and these
polls may stay open until midnight. There has to be a better system.
8:50 – Obama continues to run well ahead in the counties in Florida in which
he needs to run up big numbers. More reports of ballot counting
problems in Broward, Palm Beach, and Dade counties, as in 2000. In
the words of Yogi Berra, it’s deja vu all over again.
8:40 – Karl Rove just said he thinks that Virginia looks good for Romney.
Karl knows the states very well, so that should be of comfort for
Romney. As for Florida, time for Romney supporters to do some
8:07 – A number of “safe and likely” states have been projected for each
candidate. In Pennsylvania, the exit polls have Obama ahead by 5. I
suspect that Pennsylvania will soon be projected for Obama.
8:00 – There was a lot of controversy about the public polls during the
campaign, but thus far these polls, and their turnout models, look
very accurate – to Romney’s chagrin.
7:51 – North Carolina exits show dead heat. Romney must win there to
prevent Obama victory.
7:48 – West Virginia, South Carolina projected for Romney. No surprise.
7:40 – CNN just reported that Obama appears to be carrying largely Jewish
Palm Beach County with 61 percent, only 5 points less than in 2008.
Indication that Jewish vote defection to Romney will fall below GOP
7:38 – Polls have closed in Ohio. No call has been made yet, but Obama
leads in exit poll by 3. Also, exit polls show high approval of auto
bailout and overall mood of optimism. I could be wrong, but I think
Obama will win Ohio.
7:30 – If Romney loses Virginia, North Carolina, or Florida, he loses the
election. Close in Florida, but I think he will win there. Virginia
is very close. Indiana was just projected for Romney. no surprise.
7:08 – CNN exits have Virginia dead even, 49 to 49, African-American turnout up. If Obama wins Virginia, it is almost impossible for Romney to win.
7:05 – Obama wins Vermont, Romney wins Kentucky. No surprise.
7:02 – Exits in Pennsylvania show Obama in the lead. If Obama wins
Pennsylvania and Ohio, Romney will need to win Wisconsin and New
Hampshire to avert defeat.
6:34 – Bad news for Romney. CNN reports that an internal source within the Romney campaign stated that the last internal campaign poll in Ohio gave Obama a five point lead. If Romney loses Ohio, he will have to win two of the following three states to win the election: Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania.
PREAMBLE: To put this election night in proper perspective, one must first identify the states that are safe and likely for Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, respectively and those which are “swing states:
SAFE OR LIKELY OBAMA: 217 Electoral Votes:
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine(4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), New York (29), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12)
SAFE OR LIKELY ROMNEY: 191 Electoral Votes:
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3)
SWING STATES: 130 Electoral Votes:
Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10)
NEEDED TO WIN: 270
It should be noted that Pennsylvania only was added to the list of swing states in recent weeks – previously, the state was considered to be “safe and likely” for Obama.
There are three swing states where the Jewish vote may have a significant impact: Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. I discussed this potential impact here earlier.