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March 31, 2015 6:33 pm

Top Critics Warn Iran Nuclear Deal Will ‘Clearly’ Leave Less Than One Year Breakout Time to Bomb

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Olli Heinonin has voiced his concerns that the current deal with Iran would provide less than one year's warning before the Islamic Republic developed a bomb. PHOTO: Wikipedia.

Olli Heinonen, the former Deputy Director-General for Safeguards at the IAEA, is convinced that Iran’s breakout time to a nuclear weapon under the current deal being negotiated by the P5+1 powers “will be clearly below” the one year goal.

One of the administration’s main selling points on the deal has been that it would provide a one-year warning period between the time Iran decided to violate the deal and the time it would have assembled a fully functioning nuclear warhead.

Yet, Heinonen is unconvinced that the deal can actually deliver on this promise. He told reporters in a conference call hosted by The Israel Project that, “[W]hen I look from the parameters which I know, it looks to me that if there are 6,500 centrifuges remaining,” as the current deal proposes, “installed and in operation – it might be difficult to get it to one year or longer, the breakout time. It will be clearly below. And then we have to add all the uncertainties, the unknowns.”

He also said that the administration’s concessions on Iranian disclosure, which were recently revealed in a Wall Street Journal article, would cause future monitoring regimes to fail. He said, “you are more or less fencing one hand behind your back and it might be difficult to find the proper places and detect them early enough.” He added that without finding all of the sites where Iran is developing its nuclear program and subjecting them to monitoring, the monitoring scheme will be unsuccessful in the long term.

Heinonen also mentioned that the IAEA “has not been able yet to verify the completeness of Iran’s declarations. So we don’t know at this point of time whether all the uranium which is in Iran is really subject to IAEA verification.” Heinonin says that the same applies to Iran’s enrichment program, since Iran has built a lot of centrifuges that are installed and operating.

Heinonen was not alone in voicing such fears on the deal. Earlier today, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu noted that the time Iran will need to break out to a nuclear weapon under the deal currently being tabled in Lausanne, “will  be reduced to less than a year, and some even say – much less than a year.”

The Prime Minister also noted the deal’s shortcomings by excluding Iran’s missile development from its ambit, research on more sophisticated centrifuges, and the Islamic Republic’s “campaign of conquest and terror,” carried out, “in full view…from the Golan to Yemen, from Iraq to Gaza and in so many other places.”

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  • An excellent article. As felt by all of us — with half a brain the outcome of these talks are exactly as we expected. Next thing we will see coming from Obama is Russia is planning to attack the US via Iran with an alliance to China! Iran has only one objective in mind that is to destroy Israel and go to war with Saudi. Europe is now getting its nickers in a twist because the Leviathan field will shortly be coming on line. I see a swift turn around on behalf of Europe and as a result of Israel’s Oil fields Saudi will no longer be able to be trusted. OPEC has ruled Oil production for the last 50 years and still lives in the 7th century socially, yet the Saudi Royals adopt western practice right down to night club crawling among with the less than selubrious western men. Trafficking of women and girls, plus the slave trade is still on the Saudi agenda, along with other Arab states — plus traffic of human organs from victims in the current Syrian war and Bosnia. WWIII on the way and it will start between Sunni and Shia though I suspect Iran will start with Israel first? Obama has demanded Israel give up her nuclear deterrent. This is the most ridiculous policy to date to come out of the States.

    • Pierre Elie Mamou

      unfortunatly a perfect comment

  • Iran being the most untrustworthy Terrorist regime driven by religious negative motivations is a true danger to the world. They have been stalling the talks for years, they have impeded IAEA inspectors to properly inspect their research facilities, they lied about how many and where research facilities are and despite all that the P5+1 and especially Obama insist on signing and lifting the sanctions. The most ironic news broadcast of yet another snag in the conference last night was that the P5+1 had very serious concerned faces, while the Iranian negotiator had a huge GRIN from ear to ear.

  • Reform School

    KNOCK ON WOODen heads: “Hel-lo-o-o-o-o! Is anyone home?”

  • Obama doesn’t have a foreign policy legacy so he’ll do any deal with Iran. It doesn’t mat to him how he’s endangerin Israel

  • steven L

    Fundamentally wrong and misconceived potential deal based on denial of reality and a personal ideology.
    Obama and Kerry’s bunker mentality perhaps as impenetrable as the Fordow bunker!

  • leonard

    why do you hate Jews so much that you cut out the critical lines Olli Honinin said:
    quote: “[Y]ou need to have a good baseline for a solid monitoring. You need to know how far they got, which are the important institutions and capabilities so that you pick the right things for the monitoring. Because if you go the other way around, you are more or less fencing one hand behind your back and it might be difficult to find the proper places and detect them early enough. But this perhaps can be to certain degree compensated by additional access rights. But I think by far the best starting point is to have a complete disclosure.”

    so the algemeiner hid the truth from Jews. WHy? Did you want individuals who read the article to be scared and send donations to the algemiener? Why did you withhold the full quotes of Olli Honinin ?

  • A nuclear-armed Iran puts the whole world in danger.
    Nuclear-armed Jihadi terrorists are the greatest threat our civilization may ever face.

    Bibi’s address to a joint session of the US Congress this week 3.3.2015 was appropriate and necessary. There are some who have ears but they do not hear and eyes but could not see. Such people said and asserted that Bibi said “nothing new”. There is an adage which says “a dog that is destined to get lost will not hear the hunter’s whistle”. Majority of Americans heard the whistle, loud and clear on Tuesday, when Benjamin Netanyahu delivered his speech about terrorist Iran’s acquiring nuclear capabilities is a threat to the world at large.
    We must learn to face reality and not delude ourselves to wishful thinking.
    Iran the destabilizing factor in the Middle East and beyond..
    The PM stated the greatest dangers facing our world is the marriage of militant Islam with nuclear weapons.”
    A nuclear-armed Iran puts the whole world in danger.
    Nuclear-armed Jihadi terrorists are the greatest threat our civilization may ever face.
    Radical Islam is not just a threat to American and Israel. It is a threat to Western Civilization everywhere. Unless the West wakes up now before it’s too late and stops this evil.
    Do you want prevent nuclear terror? Do you care about you children and your family’s future? Vote for nuclear free Iran.
    A terrorist state must not be permitted to possess nuclear capability.
    Iran already controls; Libya, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, Gaza, etc. how much more before we stop them from devouring the Middle East and more.
    When Israel takes defensive action for its survival. Israel would rather be condemned for its actions as a live Israel than eulogized as a dead Israel.

    YJ Draiman


    obama and us state department betrayl with aiding and abating
    by pro iranian adviser iranian national valerie jaret

  • As a democrat, I twice voted for Obama. I would never think that he will be a creator of the “Final Solution.”

  • nelson marans

    President Obama obviously does not care whether Israel continues to exist. His presidency has been a disaster for the Jewish state and his departure from office should be a relief. He has enabled Iran to become the dominant nation in the Middle East and has abandoned our allies in the region. What are his motives? One an only hazard a guess but he is proving to be an acolyte of his mentors who are known for their anti-Israel and sometimes anti-Semitic views.