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July 24, 2016 6:09 am

The Nuclear Deal Hasn’t Prevented Iran From Building a Bomb

avatar by Ehud Eilam

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Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran. Photo: Wiki Commons.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran. Photo: Wiki Commons.

On July 14, 2015, the P5+1 and Iran signed an agreement (the JCPOA) regarding Iran’s nuclear program. Under this “agreement,” Iran kept the capability to renew its efforts to produce a nuclear weapon. Iran also went on with developing and testing its long-range surface-to-surface missiles so they could eventually carry a nuclear warhead.

Despite the deal, Iran’s leaders continue to express their hostility toward Israel. For example, on June 3, 2016, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said that the United States, Britain and Israel are Iran’s “main enemies.”

In early July 2016, the annual report by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (the German equivalent of the FBI), charged that Iran had made at least nine attempts to develop technology that could be used to build a nuclear arsenal. Most of those attempts failed due to the cooperation between German companies and the country’s intelligence agency.

The Obama administration will do whatever it can to keep what it sees as its biggest foreign policy achievement in tact. As long as Iran does not openly breach the deal and provoke the United States, the latter might not pay too much attention to Iran and its nuclear program.

Israel might have to wait until a new American administration comes into office to make any progress on the issue. Meanwhile, Jerusalem has been independently watching to see if Iran tries to breach the JCPOA. It did not accept the JCPOA to begin with, but it can use a major violation of the agreement to prove that Iran can’t be trusted. Even if this happened, at most there would probably be more sanctions — but no military measures. Therefore, Israel has been preparing to rely on its own forces.

In June 2016, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) officially received its first US F-35, which, due to its stealth capabilities, would be the spearhead of a raid to bomb Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. The IAF already has advanced fighter-bombers, the F-15I and F-16I, meant for long-range missions. The problem, however, is that neither carries bombs big enough to crack the protection that Iran has created around some of its more important nuclear sites — such as the one in Fordow, which is located 250 feet below the ground.

The United States has a huge bunker-buster bomb, the MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator), which could do the job in Iran. Israel needs that bomb and aircraft capable of carrying it. Then Israel could deter Iran from building a nuclear weapon. Israel therefore needs the support of its American patron, or else it might have to get used to a new reality in which Iran possesses nuclear weapons. One year later, the Iran nuclear deal isn’t looking great.

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  • Couldn’t we all just get along as a famous man in LA once said

  • We shall consider: ”Anyone in Israel considering the surrender of Jewish territory is treason and must be prosecuted”

    Clipping from Saint Petersburg Times (approximately 1946)

    Washington – (UP) – Britain’s treaty grafting independence to Trans-Jordan violates agreements with the United States, the United Nations and the Old League, as well as the rights of the people of Palestine, Senator Francis J. Myers, Pennsylvania democrat, charged yesterday.

    Echoing the words of Senator Claude Pepper, Democrat, Florida, who flayed U.S. foreign policy, Thursday, Myers asserted that Trans-Jordan is not ready for the statehood and “illegally granted”. And in offering that goal of all dependencies, he added Britain has acted “in contempt of the senate of the United States.”
    * * *
    “WHY THIS HASTE and Stealth?” he asked in a floor speech. “The British government which has fought all attempts at freedom, all movements for independence in the Middle East, is now discovered in the gracious role of liberator.

    “Are there perhaps some hidden resources, mineral wealth or oil which are involved?”

    He demanded that the state department explain its failure to protest the treaty violation, and urged that the senate demand all the facts.

    Pepper charged that the United States had become a guarantor of British Imperialism, and that the British-Trans-Jordan agreement was but a “subterfuge” so long as his majesty’s troops are allowed to remain in that country. He also asserted that the United States and Britain were ganging up on Russia, and added:

    “WHAT I DECRY is the international hypocrisy, sham and pretense. If the British people want the Russians to get their troops out of Iraq, let them get their troops out of Trans-Jordan. Let them get their troops out of Lebanon and Syria, and let them get their troops out of Palestine.”

    Myers picked up that tune, changing only the words. In angry mood, the dark-haired Pennsylvanian told his colleagues that:

    1. The territory of Trans-Jordan is contained in the original mandate for Palestine, and under its terms, the mandate could not be unilaterally altered.

    2. Under the Anglo-American Convention of 1924, Britain could not change the mandate’s terms without the consent of the United States.

    3. This violation of the treaty with the United States also “strikes at the charter of the United Nations adopted at San Francisco” which “specifically states that no change can be made in the status of mandated territories without the approval of the UNO’s general assembly.”

    Myers asserted that there was no more justification for separating Trans-Jordan from Palestine then there was for “the separation of the United States into two nations: Trans-Mississippi and Cis-Mississippi.”

    “Aaron Burr tried to do that to our nation” he said. “He was tried for treason”.

    We shall consider: ”Anyone in Israel considering the surrender of Jewish territory is treason and must be prosecuted”