Turnout high in French conservative presidential primary

France is bracing for the possibility of President Le Pen - for now, voters must decide who could oppose her in the 2017 election.

Sunday 20 November 2016 18:16, UK

Former French president Nicolas Sarkozy casts his vote in Paris
Image: Former French president Nicolas Sarkozy casts his vote in Paris
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Turnout is high in France's first-ever conservative presidential primary, according to vote organisers.

Seven contenders from the country's centre-right Les Republicains party are being whittled down to two names.

The candidates include former prime ministers Alain Juppe and Francois Fillon - and ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy.

If no candidate gets a majority of the vote - and none are expected to - the leading two candidates will face a second vote on 27 November.

The winner of next Sunday's run-off will be the main conservative candidate for next April's presidential election.

With the Socialist Party, led by the unpopular incumbent president Francois Hollande in disarray, the Les Republicains main rival next year is expected to be Marine Le Pen.

Marine Le Pen: 'It's an emergence of a new world'
Image: Marine Le Pen is forecast to make it through to the final vote

The leader of the right-wing Front National is riding high in the polls.

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Experts say analysis of the polls shows Mr Juppe has the best chance of beating Ms Le Pen if he wins the nomination, but if he is eliminated before then, other less popular conservative politicians may struggle to beat the Front National leader.

The rise of Ms Le Pen, who is campaigning on a pro-nationalist, anti-immigration ticket amid growing fear of Islamist terrorism, has been attributed to the same sentiment that prompted Donald Trump's victory in the US and Brexit in the UK.

Last week she told Sky News that Brexit and Mr Trump's shock victory were signs of the "emergence of a new world" in which disillusionment with mainstream politics has led many in France to consider her their only hope.

For months, pollsters have predicted Mr Juppe would win the primaries and subsequently defeat Ms Le Pen. But suspicion of the polls is leading some to suspect France could be in for a shock.

Mr Juppe's early lead has been eroded by two party rivals to his right - Mr Sarkozy and Mr Fillon, who served as Mr Sarkozy's prime minister from 2007 to 2012.

Mr Fillon in particular has come from behind in the last week, making the race even harder to call. 

Bordeaux's mayor and right-wing Les Republicains (LR) party's candidate for the right-wing primary ahead of the 2017 presidential election, Alain Juppe delivers a speech during a campaign meeting in Paris on November 14, 2016. / AFP / Thomas SAMSON (Photo credit should read THOMAS SAMSON/AFP/Getty Images)
Image: Bordeaux's mayor and Republican candidate Alain Juppe

It has led to some analysts taking more seriously the possibility Ms Le Pen could eventually become president, an event some believe could weaken or break up the European Union and the eurozone.

But Mr Juppe is confident. "I am not Hillary Clinton," he said on public radio on Friday, adding that "France is not America".

Mr Juppe is seeking to draw support from centrists and left-wing voters determined to prevent Ms Le Pen winning power.

One analyst, Charles Lichfield of Eurasia Group, gives Ms Le Pen a 25% likelihood of beating Mr Juppe. But, he said, if she goes up against Mr Sarkozy or Mr Fillon, her chances of winning jump to 35%.

Mr Fillon told supporters at a rally in Paris on Friday that he could "sense a surprise coming" and urged them to "shake up" the primaries, winning wide applause and shouts of "Fillon for president".