A man holds a flag with a picture of late leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, late Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, during a rally in Tehran, Iran, April 29, 2026. Photo: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

JERUSALEM — One of the most prominent and well-connected Israeli journalists predicted here on Wednesday that the Iranian regime will collapse within the next year, despite ongoing US efforts to reach a peace deal with Tehran.

Amit Segal, chief political analyst for Israel’s Channel 12 News, told a crowd at the Marriott Hotel during an interview that the compounding effects of sanctions, impending hunger, and simmering corruption of the Iranian government will cause civilians to finally overthrow the authoritarian regime that has ruled the country since 1979.

“I think that in the next year the regime will fall,” said Segal, who maintains a robust network of sources in the Middle East.

When asked to clarify whether he believes that economic collapse will trigger the regime’s downfall, Segal noted figures used by US and Israeli officials that the current US blockade on Iranian ports is costing Iran an estimated $450 million a day — a trend he described as unsustainable.

After the joint US-Israeli bombing campaign began on Feb. 28, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquified natural gas flows. The US responded by imposing its blockade, not allowing ships to enter Iranian ports or for departing vessels to reach their destinations.

Segal also pointed to the nationwide anti-regime protests that erupted across Iran in January as evidence of widespread discontent among the Iranian populace. The regime ultimately crushed the protests with a brutal crackdown, killing tens of thousands of people and arresting tens of thousands more, according to various estimates.

Segal also discussed the Gaza war and Israel’s global reputation. He acknowledged that Israel’s international popularity has plummeted in the two-and-a-half years following Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, massacre across southern Israel. He argued that the Jewish state needs to prioritize ending its conflicts swiftly and decisively so the country does not oversaturate the global news cycle.

The journalist suggested that Israel’s image would improve if the country was “boring for a few years” and became associated with what the Jewish state excels at, such as harvesting “cherry tomatoes” and “losing football matches.” He also argued that the West holds a misguided belief that “the weaker you are, the more just you are,” suggesting that lack of strength signals moral righteousness.  

Segal claimed that the growing divide between Israel and the West can be largely attributed to the latter’s unwillingness to grapple with the realities of Middle Eastern geopolitics. He contended that shows of strength are important for maintaining respect in the Middle East, whereas Western governments emphasize expressing kindness and mercy.

According to polls, Israel’s image has plunged across virtually every demographic in the West. Approximately 60 percent of Americans hold a negative view of the Jewish state and 37 percent hold a positive view, according to polling by Pew Research. For the first time in the history of the poll, Americans are more sympathetic to Palestinians than Israelis. The landscape appears even more bleak for Israel when dissecting levels of support for the Jewish state among age lines. An overwhelming majority of young voters hold unfavorable views of Israel, with support slipping significantly even among young conservatives, according to polling data.