Voters participate in the US midterm elections on Election Day, in Bangor, Maine, US, Nov. 3, 2026. Photo: REUTERS/Taylor Coester

Americans headed to the polls in Tuesday’s midterm elections to deliver a verdict on the first two years of President Donald Trump‘s second term, with surveys and nonpartisan analysts favoring Democrats to wrest the House of Representatives from Republicans while control of the Senate remains uncertain.

The battle for the Senate is unfolding across nearly 10 closely contested statewide races, most in Republican strongholds.

History is against Trump‘s Republicans: The sitting president’s party has lost ground in Congress in all but two midterm elections since World War Two. Trump‘s approval rating is hovering near his all-time lows, dragged down in part by voter frustration over the rise in fuel prices sparked by the war with Iran.

Much of this year’s election is about Trump, the central US political figure for most of the last decade. Trump himself has told his supporters repeatedly to “pretend I’m on the ballot” to motivate high Republican voter turnout, a message that Democratic leaders have echoed to ensure their own electoral base shows up to vote.

Trump, in a television interview on Tuesday morning, boasted of what he billed as his achievements in Venezuela and Iran and declared optimism for fellow Republicans.

“I think the results are going to be better than you think,” he told Fox News, adding that he would be watching the results come in later Tuesday night at the White House, where he is hosting a viewing reception.

In remarks that appeared aimed at swaying largely Democratic-leaning voters unhappy with US support for Israel, the lone democracy in the Middle East and a critical strategic ally, Trump said that Washington would stop $4 billion in annual funding to the country after the end of this year.

US policy toward Israel has been a particular focus in Michigan, where progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is running a closely watched campaign for Senate.

The president has sought to energize his base with more than two dozen campaign rallies since the start of October, the vast majority in states he easily won in 2024, underscoring the extent to which Republicans are playing defense.

Led by Trump, Republicans have portrayed Democratic candidates as radical, un-American, and even communist.

“The Democrat Party has nominated the most extreme and dangerous slate of candidates in American history,” Trump said on Monday during a speech in Washington.

However, opinion polls show voters are most concerned about affordability and disapprove of Trump‘s handling of the issue, after his sweeping tariff policy and his decision to attack Iran in February increased domestic costs. Republican candidates, meanwhile, have struggled in some swing states to distance themselves from a president who places high value on loyalty.

All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election, along with 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats, though the majority of contests are not considered competitive. Democrats must flip at least three House seats and four Senate seats to win a majority in each chamber.

Democrats have little margin for error. The party must defend all of its current seats while winning at least two states that voted for Trump by a double-digit margin two years ago: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas.

Opinion polls show Democrats either narrowly leading or within striking distance in all of those states.

MICHIGAN RACE ROILED BY CROSS-PARTY ENDORSEMENT

The Michigan Senate contest between El-Sayed, 42, and Republican former US Representative Mike Rogers, 63, received a fresh jolt on Sunday when Democrat Haley Stevens, who narrowly lost to El-Sayed in the party’s primary election, endorsed Rogers in a surprise reversal.

In addition to the implications for Senate control, the Michigan race represents a high-profile test case of whether a battleground state will elect a far-left candidate who Republicans and some independents and moderate Democrats accuse of holding extreme positions.

A win for El-Sayed, who has regularly attacked Israel and supports liberal policies such as universal healthcare, would be seen as a boost for the party’s left wing ahead of the 2028 presidential election.

The Alaska Senate race has been caught up in its own turmoil, after the New York Times reported that the campaign of Democratic candidate Mary Peltola, 53, helped recruit a third candidate who shares the first and last name of her Republican opponent, Dan Sullivan, 61.

Peltola has denied involvement. Trump‘s Justice Department has launched a criminal probe into the allegations and filed a lawsuit to block certification of the election results, though a judge dismissed the latter effort.

In Texas, Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico, 37, has his party once again dreaming of winning the biggest Republican state after decades of heartbreak. His scandal-plagued opponent, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, 63, has benefited from a nine-figure investment from the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, who has spent hundreds of millions of dollars boosting Republicans.

In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton, 62, a megachurch pastor, holds a narrow polling lead over Republican US Senator Roger Marshall, 66. The state voted for Trump by more than 16 percentage points in 2024 and has not elected a Democratic senator in nearly a century.

And in Maine, Republican US Senator Susan Collins, 73, is once again seeking to defy the Democratic leanings of her home state and win a sixth term. She faces Democrat Troy Jackson, 58, a former state senate president who unexpectedly became the nominee after Democratic oyster farmer Graham Platner dropped out amid accusations of misconduct, which he denied.

Other competitive Senate races are taking place in Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio, and South Carolina, all Republican-held seats.

TRUMP‘S JUSTICE DEPARTMENT INTERVENES

The US Justice Department said on Tuesday it was deploying 1,000 election monitors and observers to all 50 states in what it called the largest Election Day monitoring effort in history.

Department officials have said priorities include areas with a history of voter access issues and places with competitive races that could be targets of ​voter intimidation.

There are 47 US House races widely seen as competitive, according to a Reuters analysis of the leading election forecasters. If the other contests all proceed as predicted, Democrats would need to win only 13 of the competitive races to secure a majority.

The fight for the House has been waged largely on Republican turf, including some districts Trump carried by double digits in 2024. A Trump-backed Republican effort to redraw districts in several states to make them safer for the party appears not to have yielded the gains the White House expected.

In addition to its actions in Alaska, Trump‘s Justice Department also filed a lawsuit in California to block ballots it says may be invalid, a break from decades of practice meant to insulate elections from political influence. The US Supreme Court on Monday rejected the administration’s request for an emergency order in the case.

Three dozen governors’ races will also take place on Tuesday, as well as thousands of state-level legislative contests and ballot measures on issues from a billionaires’ tax to abortion rights.