Former Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert speaks a Jerusalem Post Conference in New York. Photo: Maxine Dovere.

The results of a new poll, published exclusively by The Algemeiner, reveal that the Israeli public has an overall negative view of former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, and that he would find it hard to regain his political standing and return to lead the country.

The survey, conducted by 202 Strategies, headed by Stephan H. Miller, an American-Israeli political and communications consultant, found that Olmert’s overall perception among likely voters is deeply negative with 60% unfavorable and just 22% favorable.

Explaining the significance of the figures Miller said, “Very rarely can a politician attract a higher percentage of voters than the percentage of voters that are favorable to him or her, and generally politicians seek to attract between 40% and 60% of those that are favorable to them to vote for them. It’s a simple path for voters to follow – first they have to warm up to you, then they can consider voting for you, and then some will vote for you. Voters typically will not decide to vote for a personality before forming a positive perception of them.”

“To put this in perspective, let’s do some generous math and assume that Olmert needs 30 seats in Knesset to be Prime Minister, which is 25% of the Knesset’s 120 members,” Miller said. “Of course, there are votes that go to waste and smaller parties that don’t pass the threshold, so let’s say he needs 24% of the vote. If a generous 65% of the people who like him, vote for him, he’ll need a minimum favorable rating of 37%. This could be achieved with the proper communications strategy, but it’s a long 15 percentage points from where he is today – and our math is very, very generous.”

Olmert’s favorability is not the only challenge facing a potential political comeback, according to the results.

When asked if they would consider voting for Olmert if he ran for Prime Minister again, only 18% of voters said they would consider voting for him while 70% responded that they would not.

“That is a deep notion not against voting for him – against even considering voting for him,” Miller said.

The poll also found that among the 22% of voters who are favorable to Olmert, 53% say they would consider voting for him if he ran, while a third – 34% – said they would not.

“So only half of the people who like him (around 11% of the electorate) say they would even consider voting for him. Or put another way, a third of the few people who like Olmert today said they would not consider voting for him again,” Miller explained.

Asked if the level of support indicated any other possible options for a future in politics for Olmert, Miller said, “There’s only one role a former PM of Israel wants and that’s PM, but the data points to a very difficult path back.”

The public opinion survey was conducted between December 26, 2013 and January 1, 2014 from a sample of 802 respondents, statistically representative of likely voters based on geographic location, religiosity, age, gender, and heritage considerations. Its accuracy is increased by the fact that 29% of respondents were reached via cellphone, 10% were interviewed in Arabic and 15% in Russian, Miller said.

Olmert led Israel from April 2006 to March 2009 when he stepped down following accusations of corruption. In 2012 he was convicted on one count of breach of trust, but was cleared of the more serious charges against him.

During Israel’s 2012 general election it was reported that Olmert planned a political comeback to challenge frontrunner Benjamin Netanyahu. In the end, it didn’t materialize.

Olmert remains an active pundit and critic of the current government’s policies. Earlier this month he commented on ongoing peace talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority saying that Prime Minister Netanyahu’s positions “are a vast distance from what everybody understands is the basis on which an accord can be reached.”