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March 26, 2018 9:28 am

Israel’s Security Forces Brace for a Spike in Palestinian Violence

avatar by Yaakov Lappin / JNS.org

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Israeli security personnel at the scene of a terror attack in the Old City of Jerusalem’s Jewish Quarter in which an Israeli security guard was killed, March 18, 2018. Photo: Yonatan Sindel / Flash90.

JNS.org – The past few weeks have seen a spike in deadly, unorganized Palestinian terrorist attacks and Israeli security forces are now preparing for a further rise in tensions in the coming weeks.

The attackers appear to be acting on their own, fitting into one of two broad categories. The first involves organized attempted bombing and shooting attacks on Israeli targets, which are planned and carried out by major armed terror entities, such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Most of these plots are broken up in time by Israel’s ongoing intelligence and counterterrorism operations.

The second kind of attacks — lone-wolf attacks — are more difficult to prevent, but here too security forces have been using new technology to close the gap. Israel has become increasingly successful in preempting such incidents.

A security source told JNS that since the beginning of 2018, no fewer than 200 lone attackers have been identified and stopped before they could strike. The Shin Bet domestic intelligence agency is behind these efforts.

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The security source revealed that in 2017 as many as 1,300 lone attackers were identified and stopped.

These numbers give a sense of the scope of the threat, but they also indicate the advances made by security forces in their ability to utilize technology to track down lone attackers in time.

Now, however, tensions are rising.

According to security assessments in Israel, the current time of year — ahead of Passover, Yom Ha’atzmaut (Israel’s Independence Day), and the Palestinians’ Nakba Day (a day of mourning over the events of 1948) — tends to be related to a rise in violence.

Apprehension will likely grow even more ahead of the Trump administration’s plan to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in May, which could spur Palestinian unrest and attacks, according to the security assessments.

And it is precisely such events that can create new motivation for lone attackers.

“A prominent characteristic in the terrorism of lone attackers has been their personal [problematic] backgrounds and motivation, and they take a spontaneous decision without prior planning,” the security source said. “In many cases, these are copycat attackers, influenced by an atmosphere [of incitement].”

According to the Shin Bet’s data, February saw an increase in attacks — 149 incidents, of which 121 were firebombings — compared to 118 in January. In February, nine Israelis were injured and one was killed. To date, three Israelis have been killed in unorganized terror incidents in March.

And according to a report released recently by the Tel Aviv-based Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, lone-wolf attacks are becoming more deadly.

The reason is “primarily a result of an increase in the operational capabilities of the lone-wolf terrorists,” according to the report. The terrorists have sometimes planned their attacks in advance and “abandoned the element of spontaneity that characterized the wave of popular terrorism in its first year [2015]. The age of some of the terrorists carrying out lethal attacks [also] seems to be higher than in the past.”

Unlike previous cases, the center noted, lone attackers have begun surveillance of routine activities of Israeli security forces on the ground, searching for weak spots before launching vehicle and stabbing attacks. In addition, some have been able to flee the scene of the attack and hide from Israeli security forces for a number of weeks, which is a relatively new development.

Col. (ret.) Dr. Reuven Erlich, a former Intelligence Corps analyst for the Israel Defense Forces and the head of the Amit Center, told JNS that the increased violence of the attacks is “not coincidental.”

“We think they are less spontaneous. These are less spur-of-the moment decisions to attack soldiers. More thought has gone into it,” he said. “We’re also seeing that they’re managing to hide out for longer. In at least two cases, it took weeks before security forces were able to capture them. There is a process here, it seems, of the lone attackers becoming more professional.”

Asked if the large Palestinian armed organizations are playing a role in this trend, Erlich answered in the affirmative, pointing to their incitement, their depiction of the attackers as heroes, and their incessant calls to conduct more attacks, even if the terror groups did not directly order or carry out acts of terrorism.

In addition, he said, the Palestinian Authority “pays the terrorists money.”

Said Erlich: “The [armed] organizations and the Palestinian Authority create the atmosphere for these attacks.”

Yaakov Lappin is a research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies. He specializes in Israel’s defense establishment, military affairs, and the Middle Eastern strategic environment.

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