Sunday, November 17th | 19 Heshvan 5780

November 19, 2018 11:28 am

Next Flare-Up in Gaza Is Only a Matter of Time

avatar by Eyal Zisser / Israel Hayom /


Hamas terrorists. Photo: Wikimedia Commons. Last week’s flare-up between Israel and Hamas saw ‎‎both parties displaying determination alongside ‎‎restraint, as neither really wants another war. Both sides tried to display their military might and maintain ‎their deterrence against each other, while remaining ‎duly wary of an unnecessary plunge into the quagmire ‎of war.‎

It also seemed that both sides wanted to reach another ceasefire with as few ‎casualties and as little damage as possible.‎

Hamas instigated the latest round of violence, ‎citing retaliation for the killing of its fighters in a botched IDF operation in Khan Yunis. That is nothing ‎new, as Hamas — taking a page out of Hezbollah’s ‎playbook — makes sure that it never leaves an unsettled score ‎against Israel, especially if an Israeli operation ‎claims Hamas operatives’ lives. ‎Hamas is determined to preserve the ‎deterrence it has been able to generate.

With a tentative ceasefire in place thanks to ‎Egypt’s efforts, Hamas wants to ensure any ‎lull also spells immunity for its leaders and ‎operatives. ‎It always maintains that a ceasefire must cement its ‎position as the Gaza Strip’s ruler, and the only entity with ‎which Israel and Egypt can deal for any ‎future military and political arrangement in the ‎coastal enclave.‎ Again, that is nothing new.

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The ‎truly troubling issue underscored by last week’s ‎violence is the ease with which Hamas repeatedly ‎pulled the trigger.‎ The terrorist group acts as though it does not fear ‎Israel at all, and while it remains careful not to ‎go too far and provoke an all-out war, it seems to ‎feel confident enough to instigate rounds of ‎violence from which it hopes to emerge the ‎winner. ‎

Hamas wants to be portrayed as the ‎entity that took the initiative, dictated the rules and the ‎duration of the game, fired ‎hundreds of projectiles at Israel, and, most ‎importantly, emerged with a deal that has not only ‎made it stronger, but given it a new position of power ‎against Israel and the Palestinian Authority.‎

Hamas seems to believe that Israel is more concerned ‎about war than it is, and that Israel wants to preserve Hamas’ rule in the Gaza Strip because it believes there is no better alternative. ‎

As long as these are the basic assumptions by which ‎Hamas operates, we cannot assume it will change its ‎strategy. On the contrary, even if this round of ‎violence has indeed come to an end, the next flare-up is only a matter of time.

In the meantime, ‎Hamas is staying the course.‎

Eyal Zisser is a lecturer in the Middle East History Department at Tel Aviv University.

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