The Taliban and Pakistan, both viewed warily by the West and others in the international community, appear to be benefiting from mounting concerns about the humanitarian and security situation in Afghanistan.

The European Union, in a move that could put the United States in an awkward position, is close to reopening its mission in the Afghan capital and offering member states to use it as an operational base for their own diplomats.

The move would enhance European engagement of the Taliban, but stop short of diplomatically recognizing the group. The Taliban government has yet to win recognition from any key players in the international community.

The EU, its member states, and the United States had moved their diplomatic missions to the Qatari capital of Doha in August, as they evacuated from Kabul in the wake of the Taliban takeover of the city.

European officials said a reopening of the EU mission was necessary to manage a €1 billion emergency humanitarian aid package.

The United Nations’ World Food Program (WFP) and its Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said this week that some 19 million Afghans, or 45 percent of the population, were experiencing “high levels of food insecurity.” That number is expected to jump to 22.8 million between November and March, unless immediate action is taken, according to a report that was just released by the two agencies.

Senior United Nations officials, including Secretary-General António Guterres, have said that one million children were at risk of starvation and death. They said Afghanistan’s poverty rate had soared and basic public services were on the verge of collapse. The crisis was worsened by the fact that hundreds of thousands of people had been made homeless as a result of recent fighting in the country.

A reopening of the EU mission in Kabul would effectively align Europe with US allies Qatar and Turkey; Pakistan, a troublesome friend; and America’s rivals, China and Russia — who all favor some degree of engagement with the Taliban, and in most cases, a lifting of US sanctions.

The Chinese foreign minister, in his first meeting with the Taliban since the US withdrawal on Tuesday in Doha, called for the lifting of the sanctions, and pledged to help the group “rebuild the country.” China has repeatedly said it was willing to work with the Taliban, but has so far refrained from taking concrete steps in that direction.

The reopening of the EU mission serves the Taliban’s purposes not only to help garner international acceptance, but also because it would extend doubts about the United States’ “over the horizon” counter-terrorism strategy.

One beneficiary of cracks in the international barrier erected around the Taliban may be Pakistan, which has long been criticized for its alleged support of the Taliban.

Pakistan is likely to be praised for reportedly giving the Taliban intelligence and technical support in its fight against the Islamic State’s South Asian affiliate, Islamic State-Khorasan. Much of the international community is concerned about the Islamic State, but has been unwilling to engage with the Taliban to counter the jihadist group.

Pakistan would likely use a successful Taliban offensive against the jihadist group to push the need for others to also engage with the Taliban.

Pakistan and some other proponents of engagement partly pin their hopes for Taliban moderation on the fact that the group is increasingly populated by a generation that came of age during the US-led occupation, but has yet to make its mark.

The Taliban botched an opportunity to inspire confidence when the leader of the notorious Haqqani network, acting Afghan interior minister Sirajuddin Haqqani, recently convened family members of Taliban suicide bombers to celebrate the actions of their loved ones.

Rather than apologizing to the victims, Haqqani, who has a $10 million bounty on his head because of his close ties to Al-Qaeda, told the gathering in Kabul’s Intercontinental Hotel that “sacrifices are for religion, for the country and for Islam.” He said the Taliban would not have been able to fight the United States without the support of suicide bombers.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an award-winning journalist and scholar and a Senior Fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute.

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