Lebanese Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah addresses his supporters via a screen during a rally commemorating late Hezbollah commander Mustafa Badreddine, who was killed in an attack in Syria, in the Beirut suburbs, Lebanon on May 20, 2022. REUTERS/Aziz Taher

The Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah has ramped up its provocations along the Israeli border in an effort to bolster its domestic standing, cement ties with other anti-Israel militant groups, and exploit the chaos of Israel’s ongoing domestic political crisis, according to experts who spoke with The Algemeiner.

A Hezbollah operative on Sunday threw a molotov cocktail toward the Israeli-Lebanese border, prompting the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to fire shots in the air. The next day, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah issued dire threats to the Jewish state in a speech marking the anniversary of the 2006 Lebanon war between Israel and Hezbollah.

Israel would “return to the stone age” if it fought a war with Hezbollah, said Nasrallah, who echoed a similar threat made by Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant toward the Iran-backed terrorist group earlier this month. Nasrallah went on to threaten Israel’s air bases, infrastructure, and nuclear facility at Dimona.

For months, Hezbollah has constructed guard and observation posts along the Israeli-Lebanese border, as well as tents in Israeli territory, prompting Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Gilad Erdan, to recently describe the situation as a “powder keg.”

Such activity, along with Hezbollah infiltration efforts like the roadside bombing at Israel’s Meggido junction in March, represent an alarming new pattern of activity from the militant group, according to experts.

“We’re seeing these acts that we haven’t seen before, at least in the last 10 years,” said Joe Truzman, a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “We’re seeing a pattern developing. It’s a concerning pattern where Hezbollah has become emboldened to attack Israel and launch either significant attacks, like the Meggido junction bombing, or what we are routinely seeing more now at the Lebanon border [with] demonstrations or Hezbollah activists coming up to the fence and cutting the wire there or throwing … Molotov cocktails.”

Hezbollah has timed these provocations to coincide with what it perceives as Israel’s domestic instability amid Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ongoing plans to overhaul the Israeli judiciary, according to Hanin Ghaddar, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

“There are a number of issues that made Hezbollah go now at this moment in this conflict to push the envelope when it comes to Israel,” Ghaddar said. “The timing is perfect, because they know that for Israel, this is not the time for war, not because Israel is not ready, but because of domestic Israeli politics.”

Ghaddar added that Hezbollah’s escalation on the Israeli border has allowed it to reclaim its mantle of “resistance” against Israel amid Lebanon’s own domestic political crisis, which has seen the value of its currency crash and Lebanon’s various pro- and anti-Hezbollah parties unable to agree on a new president. 

Despite Hezbollah’s efforts to test the border and bolster its anti-Israel credentials, Ghaddar believes the militant group has chosen a strategy short of provoking a full-scale war.

“They also are walking a very thin line because they know that war is not good for them and they’re not ready for it,” she said. “They still have so much to do before they get ready for war. They need a war budget. They need a stable and coherent and trained and ready fighting force. And they also need the people’s readiness for war. And none of these others are there. So they do not want a war. And they also know that the people in Lebanon … cannot really go for war now with the current [Lebanese economic and political] crisis. So, they’re pushing the envelope. But they know that the moment that it leads to war, they’re gonna stop.”

Truzman noted that a key element in the escalating tensions along the Lebanese border is Hezbollah’s growing ties with Palestinian terrorist groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which in recent months have been locked in a power struggle with the Palestinian Authority to gain a foothold in the West Bank.

“What’s very important here to understand, and I think people miss this, is that all of this is coordinated,” Truzman said. “They are coordinating their attacks. That’s the whole point. The way they see it is that they are stronger when they coordinate with each other when it comes to Israel. So, what’s happening in the West Bank is a huge reason why I feel that we’re seeing these provocations.”

Truzman added that while Hezbollah has taken advantage of Israel’s perceived moment of vulnerability, the group is also testing the limits of Israel’s patience.

“Israel has been cautious about responding to acts by Hezbollah,” Truzman said. “But I think that we’ll reach a point, especially with what happened with [Hezbollah’s anti-tank missile attack into Israel last month], where if something like that were to [succeed], let’s say an IDF soldier were to be killed, were to be shot or injured, or an Israeli civilian, I think the IDF would absolutely respond. But I’m seeing the Israeli military and the political echelon giving Hezbollah kind of a bit of a long leash.”