An Israeli soldier stands during a two-minute siren marking the annual Israeli Holocaust Remembrance Day, at an installation at the site of the Nova festival where party goers were killed and kidnapped during the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas terrorists from Gaza, in Reim, southern Israel, May 6, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ammar Awad

Humans love certainties. We think we know the answers, but many times, we don’t. Our history is replete with failed systems and misguided leaders. Look at the Bible. Even the best of them is fallible. And the Bible makes no attempt to cover up or excuse the mistakes of our religious and political leaders. Judges, kings, priests, and rabbis have all misjudged and failed to some degree.

Historically, there were no accurate warnings in advance of catastrophes — only vague prophecies about human imperfections. Characters such as Nostradamus were suitably vague, to be capable of multiple interpretations. So are the fashionable predictions derived from Biblical sources about much later events. And despite the Talmud telling us not to try predicting the arrival of the Messiah, we have not stopped trying for thousands of years.

In the West, we assumed that the politicians and bureaucrats would have realized by now that the very appeasement policies that led to World War II would only prolong conflict in the Middle East by persisting with policies that have consistently failed.

After the collapse of the USSR, we thought that capitalism had proved the victor. Francis Fukuyama even suggested the end of history (he then claimed he did not mean it). Decades ago, few predicted the alliance between Russia, China, and Iran. And certainly, we ordinary people did not imagine October 7th.

We may think we know what might happen in the next few years politically or environmentally, but the evidence is that we do not.

As Jews, many assumed that Orthodoxy was going to disappear, both in the Diaspora and Israel. Many thought that antisemitism in the Western World had been curbed, or that the Holocaust museums and education would prevent antisemitism. We thought China would never become antisemitic because it had no Jews — now it spreads anti-Jewish propaganda.

Many Israelis thought the situation in Gaza was stable. We thought Israel might pivot away from the US and Europe, and towards China or India. And we assumed that Israeli intelligence combined with political leadership would know what was going to happen on October 7th. All of this because of overconfidence, relying on the status quo, and not considering other perspectives.

We must be skeptical of our certainties, and be open to challenging and examining them.

This doesn’t mean that things will only get worse. History is full of cycles. Inexplicably, and against the odds, things might change for the better. There are moderate Muslims who realize they must stand up against terror and violence — just as we have our zealots as well as pacifists. In Israel, there have always been moderates and optimists. It’s just that every time there is violence, viscerally one tightens up and closes the gates for protection. We may one day see peace, tolerance, friendship, and understanding — however remote it seems just now.

We don’t control the future, but we can influence it. But if we insist on the illusion of control, we often end up losing actual control. Napoleon was very successful in battle. So was Hitler — before they both failed. So was Russia. And so are too many leaders today. The idea that the world can become a better place sustains us with hope, however dark the situation may appear. For some, this is what Messianism promises.

We all have different narratives and loyalties that conflict and seem irreconcilable. In the meantime, as individuals, regardless of what those around us might do, we know we must pursue the good, justice, and honesty, and remember that we all come from one source. We might be groping in the dark, worried about the future, but we survive.

The author is a writer and rabbi, currently based in New York.