Workers on the Israeli Tamar gas-processing rig some 25 kilometers off the Israeli southern coast of Ashkelon. Noble Energy and Delek are the main partners in the gas field, estimated to contain 10 trillion cubic feet of gas. June 23, 2014. Photo: Moshe Shai / Flash90.

A deal struck this week between Israel and Azerbaijan’s state oil company, SOCAR, has underscored a geopolitical reality often overlooked: Azerbaijan’s emerging role as a strategic player in the evolving Middle East.

While the Abraham Accords reshaped regional alliances under the first administration of US President Donald Trump, a second Trump term will usher in what some analysts call a “New Middle East” — one that prioritizes regional security cooperation to counter Iran while favoring diplomacy over conflict, all while recalibrating America’s presence in the region.

At the heart of this shifting landscape is Azerbaijan, a country that shares hundreds of border miles with Iran while maintaining deep ties with both Israel and Turkey, straddling multiple power blocs in ways that could prove crucial to Trump’s ambitions.

According to Ze’ev Khanin, a professor of Eurasian geopolitics at Bar-Ilan University and a senior research fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, Azerbaijan is a key part of strategic alliances that he calls “unclosed triangles,” with Baku comprising the missing link.

“We are living in the world of so-called unclosed triangles, which is unlike what we had in the 19th century and 20th centuries — when the enemy of my enemy is my friend and the friend of my friend is also my friend,” he told The Algemeiner.

One prominent example is the unclosed triangle of Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Israel. Despite strained ties between Turkey and Israel, Azerbaijan continues to use Turkey as a transit point for energy exports to Israel. “The Turks didn’t stop the stream of Azerbaijani energy through Turkey to Israel,” Khanin said, adding that Ankara was eager to position itself as a transit hub for energy exports to Europe.

Azerbaijan’s ties with Israel have long been significant, though often under the radar, and Baku has been Israel’s most vital ally in the Caucasus and Central Asia for more than three decades, with a partnership that spans across energy security, defense, and intelligence. As of 2019, more than 60 percent of Israel’s gasoline was sourced from Azerbaijan. Baku has also purchased advanced Israeli defense systems, including the “Barak MX” missile system as well as surveillance satellites.

The recent SOCAR deal investing in Israel’s offshore gas fields has further deepened these relations. Aaron Frenkel, an Israeli businessman, agreed to sell 48 percent of his holdings in the Tamar gas field to SOCAR, making the oil company a significant stakeholder in the Tamar gas field, which is a major natural gas source for Israel and has turned the country into a gas exporter in the region.

This move not only cements Baku’s economic influence in the region but also places it at the crossroads of a growing pro-Western bloc seeking to counter Iran’s regional ambitions. Trump’s vision for the region, as articulated in past speeches and his meetings this week with visiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, involves shifting security responsibilities to local allies, forming what some have dubbed a “Middle East NATO.” In this framework, normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia is a linchpin, but Azerbaijan’s strategic positioning could offer another key pillar, Khanin said.

“Everybody understands that Iran is not going anywhere,” Khanin said.

Both Jerusalem and Washington recognize that, Khanin said, and see the need to form a strong pro-Western bloc of countries that, despite differing political ideologies, can cooperate because of overlapping security interests.

As Trump seeks to end what he calls “unnecessary wars,” he is looking to prioritize diplomatic solutions over direct military engagement, as evidenced by his comments this week seeking another deal with Iran. Trump also aims to end the war in Gaza, secure the release of Israeli hostages, and “to limit, if not eliminate, Hamas,” Khanin said.

Trump’s comments about a “US takeover of Gaza” notwithstanding, his broader goal is to “outsource the responsibility for Middle Eastern security” to a regional coalition with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other key US allies under American leadership, Khanin added.

For Israel, the SOCAR agreement is more than an economic deal — it is a sign that Azerbaijan’s role in the region is expanding in ways that align with broader strategic goals, Khanin said. As the contours of the “New Middle East” take shape, Baku may find itself in a position of influence it has never held before.