Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, then-US President Donald Trump, and United Arab Emirates (UAE) Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed display their copies of signed agreements as they participate in the signing ceremony of the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations between Israel and some of its Middle East neighbors, in a strategic realignment of Middle Eastern countries against Iran, on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, US, September 15, 2020. Photo: REUTERS/Tom Brenner/

Since Tehran will soon be able to launch an atomic bomb and will then become a real strategic danger to Israel and the Sunni Arab states, Israel has an existential need to prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons. That’s why Israel is trying to expand relations with all moderate or secular Muslim states that can support or join the Abraham Accords.

In this context, Israel’s and America’s grand strategy in the Middle East must consist of both rebuilding Gaza as soon as possible with a new Palestinian leadership; continuing to contain Iran’s proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah; and extending the Abraham Accords to Central Asian and Caucasian Turkic-speaking countries such as Kazakhstan or Azerbaijan.

This is the new “big game.” For Donald Trump, the Accords are not just a simple tool for resolving the Middle East conflict by paying (financially or politically) the Arab or Muslim states to make peace with Israel, but should become an informal bloc of states, an intergovernmental club for joint economic development to support US economic policy in various fields. One of the first positive effects of the global Trump plan would be to fight terrorism, whose breeding ground is poverty and fanaticism, through economic development and a new moderate Palestinian government.

The 2020 agreements initiated by Trump led to the establishment of full diplomatic relations between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain, and were the first regional agreements to be signed since 1994 (between Israel and Jordan).

The agreements were named the “Abraham Accords” to emphasize the common belief of Islam and Judaism in the existence of the Prophet Abraham. In reality, the rapprochement between Israel and the Sunni Arab states began in the 2010s due to their common fear of the Islamic Republic of Iran and its nuclear program. Since 2012, the unofficial normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel has been largely based on intelligence sharing against this common threat, and the Omani and Israeli intelligence services have also begun to cooperate.

Now, five years later, how can the Abraham Accords be strengthened and extended to other Arab and non-Arab Muslim states?

According to US think tanks and Israeli media, the next direction of the “Abraham Process” could be the South Caucasus and other Turkic-speaking countries in Central Asia, with a possible alignment of Azerbaijan — a secular state with a moderate Shiite majority  that already has a 30-year alliance with Israel. Recently, its state-owned energy giant bought 10% of one of Israel’s gas fields, and the deal was done with the blessing of the US company Chevron.

Azerbaijan’s unique conceptual and practical experience in Muslim-Jewish cooperation (after Turkey’s special experience in the 1990s was ended by President Erdogan’s pro-Hamas strategy) can be used to extend the Abraham Accords to other non-Arab Muslim countries in the Middle East, Central Asia, Southeast Asia and Africa.

Crucially, the UAE, one of the architects and key participants in the Abraham Accords, is also Azerbaijan’s top partner in the Arab world. Similarly, Israel is already promoting a trilateral partnership model for Morocco involving American companies, and plans to extend this approach to the Sunni Gulf monarchies and the US in the areas of defense, AI, and cybersecurity as part of the expansion of the Abraham Accords. Azerbaijan’s participation in such initiatives would strengthen the Muslim component of Israel’s regional partnerships.

If Trump’s plan to rebuild Gaza is adapted to the positions of Riyadh, Cairo, and Amman, the reconstruction — which is necessary in any case — will most likely involve the UAE, Egypt, and possibly other Arab states. Washington could approach Baku with a proposal to participate on a humanitarian basis, acting as a free supplier of energy resources needed for reconstruction efforts and for the needs of the Palestinian population during the active phase of the project.

This could open a window of opportunity for other post-Soviet Turkic countries, such as Kazakhstan, to join the club. Kazakhstan is the gateway to Central Asia, which is rich in coveted minerals such as uranium, lithium, and tantalum, and has some of the largest gas reserves in the world. Kazakhstan is also friendly to Israel. Washington could use the Baku-Jerusalem relationship to contain Iran’s geopolitical ambitions in Central Asia.

Iran is seeking to increase its influence in the region in pursuit of energy and, of course, uranium. Increasing alliances between Israel and other Muslim-majority countries are important as the Trump administration works to pressure Iran and further integrate and consolidate Israel’s presence within the framework of a “Greater Middle East.”

Alessandro Bertoldi is the Executive Director of the Milton Friedman Institute.