People display a Hezbollah flag from inside a car driving past rubble of destroyed buildings in Deir Qanoun al-Nahr, Tyre district, southern Lebanon, June 15, 2026. Photo: REUTERS/Aziz Taher

For days we’ve been listening to wild speculation on the contents of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU): a ceasefire deal that ends Operation Epic Fury against Iran. Now, at last, we can examine the actual document.

Here’s what you need to know, section by section:

Section 1: An end to the war “on all fronts” including Lebanon. Gaza and Yemen are not mentioned. It’s not clear what will happen when Hezbollah inevitably violates this ceasefire. However, there is also no demand for Israel to withdraw from its security positions inside Lebanon.

Section 2: The countries will not interfere in each other’s “internal affairs.” This appears to hint at preventing CIA/Mossad support for Iranian opposition groups. Given that most of that support is clandestine anyway, this provision has no real meaning.

Section 3: A “final agreement” to be signed in 60 days. Indeed, this is merely an “agreement to make an agreement.” As Israelis say, לך תדע – “go find out” or more succinctly, “who the heck knows.”

Sections 4 and 5: Perhaps the only truly meaningful clauses in the MOU: within 30 days (not after more negotiations) both sides will lift their naval blockades and the US will withdraw its forces from “surrounding areas.” It’s not clear what “surrounding areas” really means or how far the US will actually withdraw.

Section 6: A $300 Billion reconstruction plan for Iran, the details to be worked out over the next 60 days. Again, this is an agreement to make an agreement. לך תדע . This could be a windfall that Iran will use to re-arm and further oppress its population, or it could be nothing at all … or anything in between.

Section 7: Ending all sanctions. More precisely: as part of the final agreement (which may or may not happen in 60 days) the US will agree to negotiate a schedule for eventually ending all sanctions. If that sentence sounded confusing, that’s because it is. We just don’t know, and neither does anyone else.

Section 8: Iran will “never produce” nuclear weapons. Donald Trump has said that the text was changed to read “develop or acquire” nuclear weapons, thus addressing the possibility of Iran simply buying them. The “fate” of existing nuclear material to be negotiated over the next 60 days.

We’ve often said that an agreement is only as good as its enforcement, so what’s written in this Section 8 is far less meaningful than the US military action that either backs it up — or fails to. After all, North Korea made a similar agreement but then violated it just a few years later. There was no true enforcement and North Korea quickly became a nuclear power.

Section 9: Until the “final agreement” both sides will maintain the status quo: no new sanctions, no additional US forces, and no Iranian progress toward its nuclear program. For now, Iran doesn’t have the capacity to begin rebuilding its nuclear program (at least not at the moment) so this is a meaningless “concession.”

Section 10: The US will immediately issue sanctions waivers for Iranian oil exports, and the related transport and banking needs. If true, Iran would immediately begin enjoying oil revenues at pre-sanctions levels.

Section 11: Frozen Iranian funds to be immediately released. This may or may not be true — other sources have contradicted this.

Sections 12, 13 and 14 are largely mechanical.

Is this good, bad or ugly?

In truth, it’s all three.

The bad news:

• In addition to the last 60 days of ceasefire, Iran has just bought itself at least 60 more, and the US appears to have a very low appetite for further military action. This buys time for the regime to recover from the damage it took in March and April, and to put off making any true, long-term concessions. As the old saying goes, “Iran has never won a war and has never lost a negotiation.”
• Iran will be immediately flooded with cash. A RealityCheck financial analysis revealed that Iran’s oil revenues alone would be sufficient to cover its entire national budget, including military. This would enable Iran to rebuild its war machine, its nuclear program, domestic oppression, and even terror proxies.
• Israel’s freedom of action against Iran, Hezbollah, and possibly even Hamas might be dangerously limited, but the MOU is ambiguous and the real-world impact is not at all clear.
• Iran has demonstrated a frightening ability to protect its terror proxies and to drive a wedge between the United States and its closest allies — even at Iran’s weakest moments.
• Iran has arguably scored a significant victory: facing down the most powerful military in human history while remaining in power, and demonstrating a significant American vulnerability: to economics, naval chokepoints, and domestic elections.
• The world is watching, and America’s enemies will learn from this. It is not clear why President Trump abandoned US efforts to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz in May, which would have neutralized Iran’s strongest leverage, but that was, in our opinion, the key turning point.

But there’s also good news:

• Global oil markets will be flooded as never before — not only will the Strait of Hormuz open, along with its backlog of tankers, but the UAE has left OPEC, Venezuela and America have increased oil production, and even Iranian oil will join global markets.
• China will no longer have access to discounted, black market Iranian or Venezuelan oil which will hit its economy hard, even as the oil boom boosts the economies of the entire rest of the world.
• Alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz are already in planning, including a pipeline that may potentially run through Israel. Iran will lose its greatest leverage, and others will benefit accordingly.
• Gulf nations are likely to build greater defenses, and perhaps even offense capabilities against Iran. If we return to war, the Islamic Republic will be facing more than just the United States and Israel.

The MOU is expected to be signed in Switzerland and officially released on Friday. And then we’ll see what happens in the future.

Daniel Pomerantz is the CEO of RealityCheck, an organization dedicated to deepening public conversation through robust research studies and public speaking.