Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a ceremony commemorating Israel’s Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers, or Yom HaZikaron, at the Military Cemetery on Mount Herzl in Jerusalem, April 21, 2026. Photo: ILIA YEFIMOVICH/Pool via REUTERS

Political decisions in the Middle East are not based on feelings. They are based on power, interests, and fear.

Before October 7, 2023, Israel was in a great position. A peace agreement with Saudi Arabia was very close, which would have built on the success of the Abraham Accords.

Arab countries wanted to connect with Israel not because they suddenly loved Israel, and definitely not because they cared about the Palestinians or any “two-state solution.” The Arab world accepted Israel because they saw it as the strongest and most successful country in the region, both in technology and security.

They realized that peace with Israel was in the best interests of their people and the region.

The UAE, for example, gained a lot from its partnership with Israel. Strong military actions by the US and Israel showed the region that Israel was the strong neighbor you could trust to fight against Iran.

But today, in 2026, the situation is completely different. The long war on multiple fronts, combined with Iran’s smart negotiation skills, changed everything. The Trump-Vance administration made a deal directly with Iran. Israel is not even part of this deal, but it has to follow the rules forced on it by Washington.

The worst example of this is happening in the Israeli north. The hands of IDF soldiers in Lebanon are tied because of a ceasefire forced on Israel by the Americans. Meanwhile, the reality on the ground is painful — 24 Israeli soldiers have been killed since this “ceasefire” started. These are 24 broken families and 24 more funerals added to the very long, dark list of soldiers lost in this endless war.

Instead of leading the fight against Iran, Israel now looks like a dependent state that just does what America says. This makes Israel look weak in the Middle East, and it pushes peace with Saudi Arabia far away.

At the center of this crisis is Benjamin Netanyahu, who is turning 77 this year. As the son of the famous historian Benzion Netanyahu, he cares deeply about history. Primarily, he cares about one thing: how history books will remember his name.

For many years, stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons was his life’s goal. But right now, it is not a success. Even though Israeli pilots showed they can fly anywhere in Iran with American help, American diplomacy moved past Israel’s military actions. Israel was left behind — and Iran is in a stronger position now than it was before the war Netanyahu pushed for.

Will Netanyahu’s legacy be peace with Saudi Arabia? That dream is also disappearing. And if it happens, America and Saudi Arabia will demand that Netanyahu give major gifts to the Palestinians.

All of this is happening with elections coming up around October, exactly when he turns 77. The man who was Israel’s youngest Prime Minister in the 1990s is now the oldest. Right now, it looks like he will finish his career without any of his big goals accomplished.

The Middle East always has surprises. If nothing dramatic changes in the next few months, Netanyahu will have to rethink everything. But one thing is already written in stone: October 7th will forever be a mark on the legacy of the historian’s son.

Itamar Tzur is an Israeli scholar of Middle Eastern history and the author of The Invention of the Palestinian Narrative. He holds a B.A. in Jewish History and an M.A. in Middle Eastern Studies, both with honors. As a senior member of the Kedem Forum for Middle Eastern Studies and Public Diplomacy, Tzur leverages his extensive academic research to provide deep, contextual insights into regional dynamics.