Israeli politicians react following a vote to dissolve the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, before the end of its term, at the Knesset, in Jerusalem, May 20, 2026. Photo: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun

Israel’s elections are coming up on October 27, 2026 and (at least if you’re American or British) they are nothing like what you’d expect. Here’s what you need to know.

There are two facts about Israel that change everything: 1. Israel has a multi-party, coalition system and 2. voters elect parties, not candidates.

No one wins a majority in Israel. Ever.

Winning a majority is theoretically possible, but it has never happened, not even to David Ben-Gurion, who is like Israel’s “George Washington.”

So when you hear headlines telling you that “most” Israelis oppose Netanyahu (or anyone else) that’s actually meaningless: most voters oppose every candidate. Getting a majority has nothing to do with winning the election.

The election results assign a certain number of seats in Knesset to each party. The leading party then teams up with others to form a “coalition” that composes a majority of the seats in Knesset — at least 61 out of 120.

Parties, not people

On Election Day, every voter stands in front of a “platter” of slips of paper — and each paper represents one party. The voter selects one slip, seals it in an envelope, and physically drops it into a ballot box.

The slips show no candidates — only parties. The head of the leading party gets to be Prime Minister (assuming that party successfully forms a coalition).

That matters, because while a recent poll shows former IDF General Gadi Eizenkot is considered “most suited” to be Prime Minister — that’s meaningless. Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party still leads the pack for most total votes.

Israeli headlines are flooded with a huge variety of polls that have nothing to do with the election: from “best suited” to “most trusted,” to  general approval ratings. These irrelevant polls make for great drama, and some even make it into misleading international headlines.

But only the party vote counts.

Latest data for Israel’s elections from Israel’s Channel 13 poll published July 1, 2026. Image by RealityCheck/Gemeni.

Netanyahu’s Likud is leading, but can they form a coalition?

Polls show Netanyahu’s Likud Party in the lead but, even with likely partners, would be unable to reach the required 61 seats. Though not entirely irrelevant, this statistic is also misleading.

Prior to elections, candidates often claim they will never “sit in a government” with one party or another.

These “refusals” can be a negotiating tactic to obtain concessions from the leading party (like a ministerial position), a method of attracting certain voters, or simply to create an image of fierce independence.

Yet candidates frequently change their approach once results are in. Actual coalition negotiations rarely adhere to pre-election statements or polling predictions.

It’s also important to note that polls lean left.

A study by RealityCheck reveals that in the Israeli elections of 2015, 2020, and 2022, polls consistently and significantly overestimated the performance of left leading parties while underestimating the right.

If the pollsters have failed to correct their methodologies, then the 2026 polls will be similarly skewed to the left. This is another reason why Likud may be closer to forming a coalition than the polls indicate.

Headlines vastly overlook that Netanyahu’s Likud party is actually relatively centrist compared to its current coalition partners.

Similarly, many of the left and center left opposition parties are relatively centrist as well: such as former Prime Minister Naftali Bennet’s “Together,” Gadi Eizenkot’s “Yashar” and former Prime Minister Yair Lapid’s “Yesh Atid” — they should be natural partners to the leading Likud party.

So why don’t we have a centrist Israeli government?

A popular campaign “platform” on the left has become !רק לא ביבי, “Just Not Bibi!” (Netanyahu’s nickname).

Indeed, Netanyahu inspires particularly strong emotions among the Israeli public: both positive and negative. Yet this slogan is not policy — it tells us what parties stand against, but not what they stand for. And what they stand against is joining a coalition with Likud, no matter the cost.

The result is that Likud (which keeps winning elections) has turned to extreme, right-wing groups and ultra-religious parties in order to cobble together a coalition.

Ironically, in its desire to defeat Netanyahu, the Israeli center and left has given outsized influence to relatively small, fringe parties on the right, while isolating themselves from power.

Netanyahu (who remains the current front-runner) is pushing toward a “broad national government,” an approach that Israelis overwhelmingly favor. Yet Israelis also remain unwilling to accept a prime minister from the opposing political camp.

Regardless of who wins, the vote on October 27 is merely the beginning of a complex negotiation that will determine the nature of Israeli society for years to come.

Daniel Pomerantz is the CEO of RealityCheck, an organization dedicated to deepening public conversation through robust research studies and public speaking.