Alex de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Foundation and internationally recognized expert on famine. Photo: Screenshot

Alex de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Foundation and internationally recognized expert on famine, has remained largely silent as his repeated declarations of mass hunger and death in Gaza have failed to materialize and have been undermined by newly released UNICEF data. 

In 2024, de Waal became one of the most prominent voices warning that Gaza was heading toward an unprecedented mass-starvation catastrophe. Yet the catastrophic mortality scenario suggested by these warnings did not materialize on the scale implied. In a series of interviews, de Waal asserted that approximately 10,000 people per day would die in Gaza as a result of mass starvation. 

The famine narrative on Gaza collapsed further after UNICEF released data earlier this month confirming that malnutrition rates in the enclave are lower than much of the region, undermining assertions that Israel purposefully inflicted a starvation on innocent civilians. 

According to the results, acute malnutrition rates across Gaza ranged from 0.2 percent in Khan Younis and Rafah to 0.8 percent in Gaza City and North Gaza, figures that researchers said are comparable to or lower than those recorded before the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war.

The survey revealed that malnutrition rates in Gaza are less severe than many neighboring Middle Eastern countries and are comparable to several European countries. For instance, roughly 3.3 percent of Egyptian youth under five years of age suffer from malnutrition, according to the data. Further, approximately 4.3 percent of youth in Iran and 2.3 percent of youth in Jordan suffer from malnutrition, per the data.

The Algemeiner could not find any new public comments or writings by de Waal on the findings beyond a statement to The Free Press.

De Waal told the news outlet last week that none of the new data was “cause to question the accuracy” of the previous famine declaration from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, or IPC.

“Children can rebound very quickly from acute malnutrition, so with the food going into Gaza since the onset of the quasi-ceasefire, the low levels are unsurprising,” he said, adding that among surviving children, the longer-term impact of the food crisis was not as severe as was feared.”

However, the data undermines arguments de Waal made that Israel’s actions were causing a mass hunger catastrophe in the Gaza Strip.

In March 2024, de Waal warned in The Guardian that Gaza was about to experience “the most intense famine since” World War II, arguing that thousands could die from hunger and disease. He explained that conventional famine thresholds could imply hundreds of deaths per day in a population the size of Gaza.

“We are about to witness the most intense famine since the Second World War. It won’t be the biggest, because starvation is confined to the 2.2 million residents of the Gaza Strip,” he wrote.

“Gaza’s health crisis has its own dreadful momentum. Even if the shooting ends today and the aid trucks begin to roll, the dying will carry on for some time. And even when the numbers of people needlessly dying dwindle, the scars of famine will endure,” he continued.

A month later, de Waal told The New Humanitarian that “thousands, if not tens of thousands, of people” will die from starvation and disease, describing Gaza’s food emergency as potentially the most severe on record.

“It is too late to avert a humanitarian disaster that is going to kill thousands, if not tens of thousands, of people. That’s the bottom line,” he said.

Last August, the IPC formally determined that Gaza Governorate had reached famine conditions. Approximately 514,000 people were classified as experiencing famine, with the number projected to increase to roughly 641,000 by the end of September.

De Waal strongly supported the assessment. At the time, he argued that the inability of investigators to collect comprehensive mortality data had actually delayed recognition of the crisis. He maintained that the available evidence was sufficient to conclude that famine conditions had been reached.

In July 2025, de Waal further accused Israel of using food “as a weapon of war” against the people of Gaza in an interview with the Carnegie Foundation.

“The humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza today is unique, however, in that the situation can be remedied overnight if Israel chooses to do so,” he said. “Within an hour’s drive of the stricken communities there are the United Nations and other aid organizations, with the resources, skills, plans, networks, and so on, to stand up a comprehensive humanitarian operation.”

While de Waal did not directly accuse Israel of committing “genocide” in Gaza, he did argue Israel was not abiding by its obligations under the genocide convention by allowing hunger to metastasize throughout the beleaguered enclave.

“The question of whether there is or is not genocide is secondary to the question of whether Israel and other states that are party to the Genocide Convention are fulfilling their obligations to prevent genocide. They are not doing so,” he proclaimed.

In December 2025, the IPC withdrew the famine classification after a substantial increase in humanitarian and commercial food deliveries following the October ceasefire. Its subsequent assessment concluded that famine conditions were no longer present in Gaza, although severe food insecurity and malnutrition remained. The number of people experiencing the most extreme level of food insecurity had fallen sharply from the levels projected earlier in the year.

De Waal’s March 2024 warning of an impending famine being the most severe since 1945 created an expectation of a catastrophe of historic proportions. His subsequent warnings repeatedly emphasized imminent mass death. Yet the official famine classification ultimately covered just a portion of Gaza, lasted only several months, and was subsequently withdrawn.