US Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) leaves a meeting of the House Republican Conference in the US Capitol on Wednesday, June 4, 2025. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Sipa USA via Reuters Connect

A new poll is signaling growing trouble for US Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky’s Republican primary, with Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein now leading the incumbent congressman 53 percent to 45 percent among likely GOP voters in the state’s 4th Congressional District.

The poll comes as Massie faces intensifying backlash over an advertisement released by a pro-Massie super PAC targeting billionaire Republican donor Paul Singer, a prominent Jewish supporter of pro-Israel causes who has backed efforts to defeat the incumbent.

The ad characterizes Singer as a “pro-trans billionaire” and features a rainbow-colored Star of David behind his image while attacking Gallrein’s allies.

NEW: Take a look at this #KY04 ad called “LGBTQ Mafia” from a PAC affiliated w/ Jan. 6 rioter Derrick Evans.

It depicts Jewish donor Paul Singer with an unexplained rainbow Star of David.

More on this insane, now record-breaking $25 million primary: https://t.co/iT3YN8wYEz pic.twitter.com/0YIRYmaJwL

— Andrew Solender (@AndrewSolender) May 11, 2026

Critics condemned the imagery as antisemitic, arguing it invoked longstanding tropes about Jewish financial influence and used Jewish symbolism in a way designed to inflame cultural resentment. Many social media users accused the ad of crossing a red line at a time when antisemitic incidents in the United States remain elevated following Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, massacre across southern Israel.

The Kentucky ad was paid for by Hold the Line PAC — a group backing Massie that is “focused on Religious Liberty, 2A, and Restoring Election Integrity,” according to its website — not Massie’s official campaign.

The race has drawn national attention, with more than $25 million spent on ads, the most ever in a House primary election, according to AdImpact.

Outside groups have poured millions of dollars into the campaign, Because Kentucky’s 4th District is overwhelmingly Republican, the GOP primary is widely expected to determine who will ultimately hold the seat. According to data sourced from the Federal Election Commission (FEC), Massie has only garnered roughly $70,000 from in-state donors, compared to over $1.1 million from out-of-state, a whopping 94 percent of his total donations.

The latest survey showing Massie trailing was conducted on May 12 by Quantus Insights. It marks one of the clearest signs yet that US President Donald Trump’s endorsement may be reshaping the race in Gallrein’s favor. The Kentucky primary has rapidly evolved into one of the most closely watched Republican intraparty battles of the 2026 election cycle, drawing national attention over divisions surrounding Israel, antisemitism, and ideological loyalty within the GOP.

Massie, a libertarian-leaning Republican known for frequently breaking with party leadership, has a long track-record of voting against sending aid to all foreign countries, including Israel. Although he has received substantial criticism over his voting record, Massie has argued that his positions do not reflect an animus against the Jewish state but are reflective of his staunch fiscal conservatism. He has also condemned Israel’s military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, arguing that the Jewish state has targeted civilian infrastructure and should not receive assistance from the US.

Critics contend his voting record and anti-Israel rhetoric have increasingly isolated him from the Republican mainstream, particularly on issues involving Israel and national security. Skeptics also claim that Massie’s criticisms of Israel are devoid of nuance, oftentimes omitting Hamas’s tendency to use human shields, repurpose civilian infrastructure for military purposes, and intercept trucks intended to distribute food.

The race has become a major test of Trump’s continued influence over Republican primaries. Trump has repeatedly criticized Massie in recent months before formally endorsing Gallrein, framing the contest as a battle between party unity and ideological obstructionism.

“We got to get rid of this loser. This guy is bad,” Trump said at a March rally in Hebron, Kentucky. “He’s disloyal to the Republican Party. He’s disloyal to the people of Kentucky, and most importantly, he is disloyal to the United States of America. And he’s got to be voted out of office as soon as possible.”

Gallrein, a retired Navy SEAL officer, has sought to position himself as a firmly pro-Israel conservative aligned with Trump’s “America First” coalition. His campaign has emphasized strong US-Israel relations, expanded security cooperation, and staunch support for the Jewish state following Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack.

Political analysts say the outcome could reverberate far beyond Kentucky, shaping how Republican lawmakers navigate issues surrounding Israel, antisemitism, and loyalty to Trump heading into the 2026 midterm elections.