A student puts on their anti-Israel graduation cap reading “From the river to the sea” at the People’s Graduation, hosted for Mahmoud Khalil and other students from New York University. Photo: Angelina Katsanis via Reuters Connect

A majority of young American voters are unwilling to affirm that Israel should continue to exist as an independent country, according to a new national poll that reveals a stark generational divide over the Jewish state — even as Americans overall overwhelmingly recognize Israel’s right to defend its citizens against armed attacks.

The survey, conducted by Republican-aligned polling firm Cygnal from Oct. 7–10 among 1,500 likely 2026 midterm voters, found that just 41 percent of respondents ages 18–29 support Israel’s right to exist. Among all voters, support stands at 67 percent, with 16 percent opposed and 17 percent unsure.

The results offer a snapshot of the challenge facing Israel and its American supporters as younger generations grow increasingly detached from the bipartisan consensus that has historically defined the US-Israel relationship. The poll does not establish why younger voters hold these views, but it documents a substantial generational divide over a fundamental question of Israel’s legitimacy.

Yet the findings also complicate the narrative that Americans have broadly abandoned Israel. Across the electorate, 85 percent say Israel has the right to use military force to defend its civilians against armed attacks, provided it complies with the laws of war. Just 8 percent disagree, while 7 percent are unsure.

The distinction is significant: Americans can question Israel’s policies or military conduct without rejecting its right to exist or protect its population.

The gap between younger and older Americans is pronounced. Among voters ages 65 and older, 77 percent support Israel continuing to exist as an independent country, compared with the 41 percent of those ages 18–29.

The partisan divide is equally staggering. Support for Israel’s continued existence reaches 92 percent among “Trump Republicans” and 87 percent among “traditional Republicans.” Among Democrats, support ranges from 62 percent among “traditional Democrats” to 49 percent among “progressive Democrats.”

The poll also found that opposition to Israel’s existence is concentrated among liberal voters. Although liberals account for 29 percent of the overall electorate, they make up 58 percent of those who oppose Israel continuing to exist.

Further, the findings suggest that Israel’s standing in American public opinion is shaped not only by attitudes toward the war in Gaza but also by generational, ideological, and religious differences.

The survey also revealed that voters overwhelmingly believe that Israel, like Ukraine, deserves the right to defend itself from terrorist attacks from proximate threats. Cygnal found that 91 percent of voters believe Ukraine was justified in using military force to defend itself against Russia’s invasion. By comparison, 85 percent support Israel’s right to use military force to defend its civilians against armed attacks, subject to the laws of war.

Among voters ages 18–29, the gap is considerably starker. Approximately 91 percent say Ukraine was justified in defending itself, while 67 percent, far less, affirm Israel’s right to defend its civilians. That 24-point difference raises questions about whether younger Americans apply the same principles of national self-defense to Israel that they apply to other countries facing armed aggression.

Support for Israel’s self-defense also extends beyond Republican voters. Among traditional Democrats, 85 percent affirm Israel’s right to defend its civilians. Further, among progressive Democrats, the figure is 74 percent. Even among respondents who oppose Israel’s continued existence, 57 percent say it has the right to defend its civilians militarily under the stated conditions.

Ninety-five percent of respondents say countries have the right to respond militarily when attacked by terrorists or a tyrannical neighbor. That includes 92 percent of Democrats, 96 percent of independents, and 99 percent of Republicans. The poll also found that 90 percent of respondents consider military action justified when a country is stopping an ongoing attack, while the same proportion say rescuing civilians held captive can justify military action.

On Gaza’s future, 51 percent say Hamas should have no role in governing the territory, while just 6 percent favor allowing Hamas to govern Gaza and retain its military forces. Another 13 percent would allow the group to participate in politics only if it disarmed. Meanwhile, 30 percent are unsure.

These results point to a broad public preference for preventing further attacks and limiting Hama’’s role in Gaza, even as Americans remain divided over Israel itself.

For Israel and its supporters in the United States, the generational divide presents a long-term challenge. Support for Israel’s existence is not merely a measure of approval for a particular Israeli government or military operation; it concerns whether Americans regard the Jewish state as a legitimate and enduring member of the international community.

The survey suggests that this baseline support is considerably weaker among young adults than among older voters. It also shows, however, that support for Israel’s right to defend its civilians remains much broader than support for Israel’s existence itself among the youngest respondents.

In the three years following the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023 , assacre across southern Israel, in which over 1,200 people were slaughtered and over 250 hostages were abducted, views regarding Israel have plummeted within the Democratic Party. An overwhelming majority of Democrats believe that Israel has committed “genocide” in Gaza, according to recent polls.

The findings are not a definitive portrait of all young Americans. The survey sampled likely midterm voters, not the entire population, and its published toplines report a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points for the overall sample. That margin does not automatically apply to smaller age subgroups, whose estimates are less precise. The poll also does not establish the reasons behind respondents’ views.