Tonight, ahead of crucial GOP nomination primaries in Michigan and Arizona being held next week, CNN will present yet another GOP Presidential debate in Mesa, Arizona, after a long hiatus in the national debate schedule.

Less than a month ago, few envisioned a surge for the former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. Yet, Santorum will take center stage today, a first for his campaign. Polls show Santorum leading with a slight margin in Michigan — Gov. Mitt Romney’s home state — and apparently catching up to Romney in Arizona.

Indeed an unusual turn of events. So far, Romney has survived being overtaken by almost every current and former candidate; but still, some of the best political minds believed that at least by this time, he would have a clear lead.

Romney’s inability to break through is unsettling for the big ticket names who endorsed him. When Romney lost previous contests, his campaign and supporters were not too shaken. Now, the looming reality of a loss in states his campaign considered safe, is creating doubt. Why hasn’t he broken through? Why is Santorum in the lead?

The answer is simply authenticity and work ethic. While Romney and Newt Gingrich were busy launching vicious attacks at each other — ignoring voter issues and avoiding states they considered unimportant because of their lack of convention delegates — Santorum continued his shoe-string campaign in these “insignificant” states. Santorum easily won Colorado and Minnesota, together with a large margin in the non-binding Missouri Caucus. In their rage, Gingrich and Romney underestimated that in the early primaries, the delegate tally is insignificant; what counts most is the media coverage received following a victory. Santorum, proving that he can win, has moderated his conservative ideologue image to become the positive, likeable “common man’s” candidate — a candidate Republican voters can support who’s not blurred by a fog of negativity as the two former frontrunners. Likability is essential. It’s why Obama beat Clinton; why George W. Bush beat John Kerry. For better or worse, voters are attracted to the candidate they can be comfortable having a beer with.

With the added scrutiny that comes with being a frontrunner, tonight’s debate will prove to be an essential test. Greater media coverage has led to some tactical missteps by the Santorum side in the past few weeks. There is no question that Santorum will be grilled about these missteps, with his stance on contraception taking center stage. In general, concerns over Iran, Syria, and the major threat of rising gas prices will likewise be prominent.

Watch live streaming of the CNN debate here.

8:04 – This is one of the most important debates to date. Coming after a long break, voters will no longer suffer from debate fatigue and will pay more attention. Newt Gingrich, who has suffered most in the polls, will need to distinguish himself. This debate is also unique, because it is the only debate so far to preempt two major swing states, that both have a fair amount of delegates.

National Anthem being performed by the ASU Symphonic Chorale following John King’s introduction.

8:07 – Rick Santorum mentions that he’s the “positive” candidate in his introduction, a very wise move.

8:09 – Newt Gingrich leads his introduction with gas prices issue. Audience member asks how each candidate will shrink the debt.