Lebanon’s army chief Joseph Aoun walks after being elected as the country’s president at the parliament building in Beirut, Lebanon, Jan. 9, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

Following Hamas’ barbaric invasion on October 7, 2023, events initially seemed confined to yet another localized confrontation between Israel and the Gaza Strip. However, developments across the Middle East since then have proven otherwise.

Rapid political and military shifts are propelling regional actors into a whirlwind of change. In an era shaped by foreign interventions, demographic and cultural shifts, and the influence of social media, the Middle East is transforming before our eyes, presenting challenges that lead to a range of possibilities — many of which remain unclear.

Israel’s response to the October 2023 events, culminating in the elimination of much of Hamas’ leadership, extended beyond Gaza’s borders. Lebanon, under Hezbollah’s control, was drawn into the chaos. The targeted killing of Hassan Nasrallah in Operation “New Order” created a leadership vacuum, possibly setting the stage for Lebanon to reinvent itself. The election of Joseph Khalil Aoun, a Maronite Christian, as Lebanon’s new president, represents an effort to prevent the nation’s collapse, restore stability, and reinforce Western influence.

Yet Lebanon’s internal issues, coupled with resistance from extremist factions like Hezbollah, cast doubt on whether Aoun can restore balance to a country that has been deeply fractured for more than 50 years.

Meanwhile, Syria’s crisis deepened following the flight of Bashar al-Assad, a president whose long, bloody civil war shattered his country.

Despite his name — “The Lion” — Assad ultimately revealed himself as fearful in the face of external and internal threats.

The emergence of Abu Muhammad al-Julani, former leader of Jabhat al-Nusra, as Syria’s leader sparks both hope and concern, as the new regime is associated with extremist Islam. And Russia’s retreat in Syria, due to being bogged down in the Ukrainian quagmire, has significantly boosted Turkey’s influence.

Ankara is steadily becoming Syria’s new patron, following the decline of Iranian dominance, aligning with Erdogan’s ambitions to resurrect the glory of the Ottoman Empire. Moreover, Turkey’s control over northern Syrian territories and Israel’s incursions into southern Syria illustrate the shifting regional power map. The central question is how Syria’s new leadership will tackle these challenges, maintain internal stability, and strengthen its position in the region.

Not far away, Yemen continues to be the battleground for a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, with the Iran-backed Houthis launching missiles and drones at Saudi targets. Joint Israeli-American strikes, supported by Saudi Arabia, against Houthi military infrastructure have raised the question of whether Iran’s influence in Yemen will wane or persist as a threat.

In this context, while military shifts introduce new challenges, it remains unclear whether they will lead to long-term stability or exacerbate the conflict.

The situations in Egypt and Jordan are fundamentally different, yet similarly characterized by internal pressures. Egypt, under Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, continues to suppress opposition, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood. However, the ongoing economic crisis threatens to undermine the country’s stability. The economic crisis is not just a domestic issue but a regional and global one, as Cairo struggles to secure Western support, particularly through large-scale development and investment projects. Jordan, considered relatively stable in the Middle East, faces mounting internal pressures while striving to maintain economic and security stability. The Hashemite monarchy’s position may come under renewed scrutiny this year, especially as tensions grow between local and global interests.

What is clear is that the Middle East is undergoing a dramatic transformation, with military and political events intertwining with social and economic developments. Social media, which has rapidly proliferated, plays a decisive role in shaping public opinion both locally and globally. The flood of information and growing criticism on these platforms directly influence governmental actions and public sentiment.

Against this backdrop, it is difficult to predict whether the region is on the brink of a stable new era, or whether more regimes will collapse or undergo significant change. A key question remains how Israel, as a central and influential power in the region, will shape the Middle East’s near future. It is evident that Israel’s governmental decisions — whether economic, judicial, or political — will continue to significantly impact the trajectories of neighboring states and the directions their leaders choose to pursue.

Itamar Tzur is an Israeli scholar and Middle East expert who holds a Bachelor’s degree with honors in Jewish History and a Master’s degree with honors in Middle Eastern Studies. As a senior member of the “Forum Kedem for Middle Eastern Studies and Public Diplomacy”. Tzur leverages his academic expertise to enhance understanding of regional dynamics and historical contexts within the Middle East.