Russia’s President Vladimir Putin speaks with Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan and Iran’s former president Hassan Rouhani during a video conference call, dedicated to the conflict in Syria, in Moscow, Russia July 1, 2020. Photo: Sputnik/Alexei Druzhinin/Kremlin via REUTERS.

Iran potentially could emerge as an unintended winner in the escalating crisis over Ukraine.

An imposition of tough US and European sanctions in response to any Russian incursion into Ukraine could likely make Russia more inclined to ignore the fallout of violating US sanctions in its dealings with Iran.

By the same token, a failure of the talks between Iran and the United States, Russia, China, the European Union, France, Germany, and Britain to revive the JCPOA nuclear accord could drive Iran closer to Russia and China.

US and European officials have warned that time is running out on the possibility of reviving the nuclear agreement, from which the United States withdrew in 2018.

No doubt, that was in the back of the minds of Russian and Iranian leaders when they met last week during a visit to Moscow by Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi. Although even stronger Iran-Russia ties seem likely, that does not mean that the road would be obstacle-free. Putin would still have to balance relations with Iran with Russia’s ties to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

If anything, Russia’s balancing act has become more complicated, as Iranian-backed Houthis expand the seven-year-long Yemen war with drone and missile strikes against targets in the UAE.

The Houthis struck out against the UAE recently, just as the Russian, Chinese, and Iranian navies started their third joint exercises since 2019 in the northern Indian Ocean.

“The purpose of this drill is to strengthen security and its foundations in the region, and to expand multilateral cooperation between the three countries to jointly support world peace, maritime security and create a maritime community with a common future,” Iranian Rear Admiral Mostafa Tajoldini told Iranian TV.

US dithering over its commitments to security in the Gulf has persuaded Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to hedge their bets and diversify the nature of their relations with major external powers.

However, a Russia and potentially a China that no longer are worried about the fallout of violating US sanctions against Iran could put Riyadh and Abu Dhabi on notice that Russia and China might be just as unreliable. This leaves Saudi Arabia and the UAE with few good choices if Russia feels that US sanctions are no longer an obstacle in its dealings with Iran.

Russia is believed to want the Vienna talks to succeed, but at the same time has supported Iranian demands for guarantees that the United States would not walk away from a revived deal like it did in 2018.

Against the backdrop of talk about a proposed 20-year cooperation agreement between Iran and Russia, Russia appears to want to negotiate a free trade agreement between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union that groups Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, alongside Russia.

Iran has signed a similar 25-year cooperation agreement with China, which largely remains a statement of intent right now, rather than an action plan that is being implemented.

The Iran-Russia accord would demonstrate that Iran is less isolated than the United States would like it to be, and that the impact of US sanctions can be softened.

“We have a document on bilateral strategic cooperation, which may determine our future relations for the next 20 years. At any rate, it can explain our prospects,” Raisi said as he went into his talks with Putin.

For now, Raisi’s discussions in Moscow appear to have produced more lofty prospects than concrete deals.

Media speculation that Russia would be willing to sell Iran up to $10 billion in arms, including fighter jets and S-400 anti-missile defense systems, appears to have remained just that — speculation. Saudi Arabia and the UAE would view the sale to Iran of such weapons as particularly troublesome.

By the same token, Iranian officials, including Finance Minister Ehsan Khanduzi and Oil Minister Javad Owji, spoke of agreements signed during the Moscow visit that would revive a $5 billion Russian credit line that has been in the pipeline for years.

Theoretically, the dynamics of the Ukraine crisis and the prospects of failed Vienna talks could mean that a long-term Russian-Iranian cooperation agreement could get legs quicker than its Chinese-Iranian counterpart.

Negotiating with a Russia heavily sanctioned by the United States and Europe in an escalated crisis in Ukraine could level the playing field as both parties, rather than just Iran, would be hampered by Western punitive measures.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an award-winning journalist and scholar and a Senior Fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute.