A general view shows the plenum at the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, in Jerusalem, May 29, 2019. Photo: Reuters / Ronen Zvulun.

The State of Israel is in a political crisis. There is no doubt about that. In the last two years, four election campaigns have been held in Israel, all of which ended without a clear decision. In a general sense, however, voters have made their political views clear.

In all four elections, the right-wing parties won a clear majority over the center-left parties and the Arab parties. Moreover, right-wing parties were only strengthened in the 2021 election, from 65 to 72 seats, while center-left parties continue to shrink, from 45 seats in the April 2019 election to only 38 in the current Knesset.

Israel’s political chaos stems from the fact that neither side has been able to form a stable government that will be able to govern. So, in the end, the political crisis does not emanate from a political ideology, but only from the question of whether Benjamin Netanyahu should be prime minister or not.

Despite the three indictments against him and the fact that he has been in office continuously since 2009, many in the State of Israel believe that Netanyahu is a good prime minister. Both the peace agreements with numerous Arab countries in the past year, and the imminent exit from the COVID-19 crisis, only reinforce their view. On the other side, many argue that Netanyahu is incompetent or immoral, and therefore he must go. The main argument of the Netanyahu opposition camp (among all parties) is that he puts his personal good before the State of Israel, has dragged the country into four unnecessary elections, and instead of running a state, is preoccupied with both his trial and his political fate.

In this context, each side proposes its own formula for resolving the crisis. On the one hand, Netanyahu’s supporters say that Naftali Bennett or Gideon Sa’ar should join Netanyahu and form a right-wing government. In addition, Netanyahu’s camp criticizes Bennett, contending that it is morally unacceptable for a candidate who received only 7 seats in the election to become prime minister. Yet the harshest criticism of Bennett is that he is working to form a government with the left-wing and the Arab parties, in stark contrast to his promises before the election not to do so.

On the other hand, Netanyahu’s opponents claim that there are two possibilities: either Netanyahu will resign and allow another MK from the Likud or the right-wing to form the government, or alternatively, establish a broad unity government without Netanyahu and the Likud, and with the support of the Arab parties. Thus, we are at a point where two subjective realities have collided.

Since each camp has its own subjective view of the political chaos in Israel, it seems that the objective truth about what is best for Israel is no longer important. Nevertheless, there are two objective facts that can help us solve the crisis: Israeli law and the elections results.

Under Israel’s political system, Netanyahu can form a government with his indictments and 30 seats; similarly, Bennett can do so with only 7 seats if he has the right partners. It’s all up to the political horse trading.

If Naftali Bennett forms a government with the center-left and Arab parties, he will not be the first politician nor the last to break an election promise. For those who forget, the last politician to do so was Blue and White chairman Benny Gantz, who specifically promised not to sit in a government with Netanyahu — and then broke his promise. Eventually, Gantz received his payback at the ballot box, when he crashed from 33 to only 8 seats. Hence, it is reasonable to assume that if Bennett violates his promises to voters — an action made possible under Israeli law — he will receive his political verdict from his constituents in the next election.

These are the objective realities that will determine Israel’s political future — and just as with free market forces in the economic field, this process must play out until a stable government is formed. Until that happens, the elections will continue.

Ori Wertman is a PhD candidate and research assistant at University of South Wales, UK, and an Adjunct Researcher at the National Security Studies Center at the University of Haifa, Israel.