A mobile artillery unit fires towards Gaza near the border, in Israel, Sept. 28, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Amir Cohen

For a moment, after two years of war, Israel stood atop the Middle East.

In early October, Hamas agreed to a ceasefire and hostage return in accordance with President Trump’s 20-point peace plan.

Recovering from the national gut-punch inflicted by Hamas’ Oct. 7 massacre, Israel smashed the Iranian-led “ring of resistance” around the Jewish State. There was a new regime in Syria, Hezbollah and Iran had been severely weakened, and the Houthis had also suffered setbacks. Optimists in Jerusalem and Washington hoped the Israelis and Saudis would resume a diplomatic reconciliation, extending Trump’s first-term Abraham Accords.

The war confirmed Israel as America’s “fantastic ally,” according to foreign policy analyst Walter Russell Mead. But, he noted, America also believed it needed to take a more active role in the country. Hence America’s new military monitoring center in Israel.

Unfortunately, what looked like an open window of opportunity for an Israeli-improved Middle East might be closing. Consider this:

Trump’s plan contained two important aims: Disarmament of Hamas, and a post-war Gaza free of the jihadists’ dominance.

However, less than a week after signing the ceasefire, Hamas insisted it would neither disarm nor abandon a leading political role. If so, only the IDF, not Trump’s envisioned international security force, could enforce the edict that Hamas be dismantled.

The US-written United Nations Security Council Resolution 2803, passed on November 18, was intended to advance Washington’s 20-point plan. Yet it contained a poisoned pill not only for Israel, but also its neighbors. The measure says that if demilitarization by non-state groups (Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, etc.) and reforms by the corrupt Palestinian Authority (PA) occur, “conditions may be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood.”

The PA, however, incessantly violates its “peace process” commitments. It continues its “pay-for-slay” subsidies to terrorists and their families, incites murder against civilians, and its mosques, communications media, and schools incessantly spew hatred of Jews and their state. And a majority of Palestinians still support Hamas.

This means that any future state run by the PA or Hamas would still support violence against Jews — thus destabilizing Israel and the entire region.

The 2020 Abraham Accords reportedly proceeded with Saudi Arabia’s tacit blessing. One reason given for the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led slaughter was to derail movement toward mutual Jerusalem-Riyadh recognition. That recognition was ostensibly contingent on a pathway to Palestinian Arab statehood.

After Trump’s recent meeting with Saudi’s Crown Prince, improved US-Saudi ties are to include sales of America’s most advanced fighter plane, the F-35, to Riyadh, and investment in the United States of up to $1 trillion in funds from the Kingdom. Though Washington is committed legally to maintaining Israel’s military qualitative edge, supplying the stealth combat aircraft to Riyadh before the latter recognizes Israel causes concern.

Although Trump still appears to support Netanyahu and Israel, the same can’t be said of all Republicans. And majorities of Democratic senators have voted to withhold key weapons from Israel. Among Republicans, a neo-isolationist, antisemitic minority grows louder. Hence, Netanyahu’s call to expand Israel’s home-grown arms industries.

Internally, there are also matters to resolve.

The Israel Defense Forces, staffed by so many mobilized reservists, needs a break. The economy needs its citizen-soldiers back at work. And the country needs its draft-deferred ultra-Orthodox — nearly 20 percent of the Jewish population — to join both the military manpower pool and civilian workforce. Yet the issue remains domestically explosive.  

And the political atmosphere needs to be cleared. Elections are due by next October. Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, should not obstruct but rather enable a commission of inquiry into the failures that preceded the October 7 invasion.

With all of these challenges facing Israel, the country might not be as secure as it seems.

Eric Rozenman retired last year as communications consultant for the Washington, D.C.-based Jewish Policy Center. He is author, most recently, of The David Discovery, A Novel of the Near Future.